TLDR
- Seaport Research Partners cut Qualcomm (QCOM) to Sell from Neutral, setting a $100 price objective
- Shares have declined 24% year-to-date, currently hovering near $129.82
- Analysts project smartphone unit shipments could decline 10%–15% in 2026 driven by elevated memory pricing
- Apple’s complete departure from Qualcomm’s iPhone supply base appears imminent in upcoming device launches
- The top five global smartphone manufacturers (excluding one) are now developing proprietary chip solutions
Qualcomm has emerged as one of the semiconductor sector’s more challenging investment stories in 2025. Shares have tumbled approximately 24% since the year began, and fresh analyst commentary suggests additional weakness may lie ahead.
Seaport Research Partners issued a downgrade Monday, moving QCOM from Neutral to Sell while establishing a $100 price objective — suggesting roughly 23% additional downside from present trading levels.
The investment thesis centers on a clear narrative: deteriorating smartphone market fundamentals are placing Qualcomm in an increasingly vulnerable position.
Seaport’s Jay Goldberg points to escalating memory chip costs as the catalyst forcing handset manufacturers into difficult choices. The industry faces a decision between raising device prices or reducing memory specifications — both scenarios likely extending device replacement cycles.
The research firm anticipates worldwide smartphone unit volumes could contract 10% to 15% throughout 2026. Such a decline would significantly erode Qualcomm’s serviceable market for mobile chipset solutions.
Apple, representing Qualcomm’s most significant customer relationship, is projected to eliminate the company entirely from its iPhone component roster. According to Seaport’s analysis, Qualcomm’s iPhone content share appears destined for zero in models launching next year.
While market participants have anticipated this development, the financial impact remains substantial regardless of preparation.
Android Segment Offers Limited Relief
Premium Android smartphones had represented a relative bright spot for Qualcomm in recent quarters. However, these flagship devices face the most severe exposure to memory cost pressures.
This dynamic creates compounding challenges for Qualcomm: reduced unit shipments combined with compressed royalty rates on remaining sales.
Chinese smartphone manufacturers may shift production emphasis toward entry-level offerings, potentially benefiting competitor MediaTek or forcing Qualcomm into defensive pricing strategies. Industry reports indicate the company has already reduced pricing on select product lines, with Seaport expecting broader price reductions ahead.
Complicating matters further, four among the five largest smartphone vendors have launched internal processor development initiatives. This trend threatens Qualcomm’s competitive positioning across multiple fronts simultaneously.
Mounting Analyst Skepticism
Seaport’s bearish stance isn’t isolated. Bank of America Securities resumed coverage last week with an Underperform recommendation, highlighting projected revenue and earnings expansion trailing the broader chip industry. BofA specifically identified the anticipated $7–8 billion revenue loss from Apple as a critical risk factor.
Mizuho downgraded QCOM to Neutral from Outperform in January, citing comparable concerns regarding the company’s smartphone business fundamentals.
Bullish perspectives persist despite growing skepticism. Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight rating alongside a $200 price target. Loop Capital elevated shares to Buy, emphasizing diversification opportunities. Wells Fargo upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight, noting the company’s data center initiatives.
Qualcomm exceeded December quarter expectations, though March quarter guidance disappointed, impacted by memory supply constraints affecting Chinese original equipment manufacturer orders.
Shares traded around $129.99 in Monday’s premarket session, declining approximately 1% on the day.
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