Key Highlights
- Walmart shares reached a record peak of $134.71, climbing 37% in the past 12 months
- Market participants are pricing in a potential 5% movement following Thursday’s quarterly results
- First-quarter revenue projections stand at $174.94 billion, representing a ~6% annual increase; earnings per share forecast at 66 cents
- Digital commerce revenue anticipated to have expanded approximately 22% during the period
- Wall Street consensus targets average slightly above $140, with 10 of 11 analysts maintaining Buy recommendations
The retail behemoth’s shares climbed to an unprecedented $134.71 on Monday, as market participants prepare for the company’s fiscal first-quarter financial disclosure scheduled for Thursday before market open.
Shares have surged approximately 20% year-to-date, establishing the company as one of the top-performing large-cap retail stocks in 2025.
According to options market activity, traders are anticipating a swing of as much as 5% through week’s end. An upward move of that magnitude would propel shares beyond $139, surpassing the February peak. Conversely, a 5% decline would bring the stock to approximately $127.
This marks the inaugural quarterly report under CEO John Furner’s leadership, following his appointment in February. The earnings conference will provide Furner his first opportunity to articulate his strategic vision for the retail giant.
Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha project Q1 revenue of $174.94 billion, marking a nearly 6% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated at 66 cents, representing a 5-cent improvement versus the prior-year period.
Same-store sales growth is estimated at 3.8%, with online sales expected to have surged roughly 22%.
Wall Street Perspective
The Street maintains a decidedly optimistic outlook on Walmart. Among 11 analysts monitored by Visible Alpha, 10 recommend buying the stock while one holds a neutral stance. The consensus price objective hovers just above $140.
UBS maintains its Buy recommendation with a $147 price objective, while TD Cowen elevated its target to $150, also rated Buy. KeyBanc reaffirmed its Overweight stance, highlighting the company’s market share gains.
Oppenheimer anticipates a strong quarterly performance but believes Walmart will probably maintain its full-year outlook unchanged, considering persistent concerns around elevated fuel expenses.
Morgan Stanley suggests Walmart is strategically positioned to capitalize on value-seeking consumers as inflationary pressures continue to strain household finances.
Economic Pressures as Catalyst
Inflationary headwinds have paradoxically benefited Walmart. As more shoppers prioritize value, customer traffic and transaction volumes have remained resilient at Walmart compared to premium-priced competitors.
This reporting period arrives as inflation and energy costs stay elevated, partly attributed to geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict. Earnings from Walmart and peer retailers this week should illuminate how American consumers are navigating the current economic environment.
The company has increased its dividend payout for 31 straight years. Shares currently trade at a P/E multiple of 49.11, which InvestingPro identifies as above its calculated Fair Value assessment.
Walmart’s current market capitalization stands at $1.07 trillion.
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