TLDR
- Approximately 21% of altcoins listed on Binance are currently trading above their 200-day moving average, marking the highest percentage since September 2025.
- The AltSeason Index for the 90-day period has risen to 28.6, representing the strongest reading in several months, though still significantly below the 75% benchmark required for confirmed altseason conditions.
- Trading volume for altcoins on major centralized exchanges has been increasing, with the 30-day moving average surpassing the 365-day moving average.
- On May 12, Solana and XRP ETFs experienced substantial inflows while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows.
- Bitcoin’s market dominance continues hovering near its peak levels last seen in November 2025, suggesting the overall market trend remains Bitcoin-focused.
Three distinct data streams are converging on a similar narrative: the altcoin market may be experiencing a quiet resurgence. Market observers are monitoring developments closely, though few are prepared to declare a full-scale altseason has arrived.
The most frequently referenced metric originates from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who observed that 21% of Binance-listed altcoins currently trade above their 200-day moving average. This figure represents the highest percentage recorded since September 2025. The data indicates a growing number of cryptocurrencies are rebounding from their lows, which occurred following a sector-wide decline exceeding 50% during the macroeconomic turbulence associated with US and Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions.
Despite this positive development, Darkfost maintained a measured perspective. During the more robust market periods of mid-2025 and Q4 2024, between 60% and 80% of altcoins traded above this technical level. The current 21% reading remains considerably lower than those historical benchmarks.
Trading Volume Points to Capital Rotation
A second indicator emerges from altcoin trading activity on centralized platforms. Analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted that trading volume for altcoins—excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies—has been climbing consistently in recent weeks. The 30-day volume moving average has crossed above the 365-day moving average, a technical pattern that historically correlates with capital flowing from major cryptocurrencies into smaller-cap alternatives.
The analyst emphasized that sustained momentum in this metric could validate the thesis that a wider altcoin rally is taking shape.
The 90-day AltSeason Index, monitored by CW8900 at CryptoQuant, advanced to 28.6, representing its strongest level in months. This index calculates the percentage of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization that have delivered better returns than Bitcoin over a 90-day window. A threshold of 75 or above traditionally signals confirmed altseason conditions. At 28.6, roughly one-quarter of leading cryptocurrencies are outpacing Bitcoin.
Among the strongest performers during the past three months are ZCash, which surged 98%, Bittensor, which climbed 72%, and Morpho, which advanced 68%. Bitcoin registered a 17% gain during the identical timeframe.
Institutional Flows Add to the Picture
From a technical analysis perspective, the TOTAL2 indicator—representing the aggregate market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin—has rebounded from the lower boundary of a multi-year broadening wedge formation and successfully broken through an ascending triangle pattern on daily charts. Multiple analysts have identified this price action as a potential bottoming formation for the broader altcoin sector.
Institutional capital movements provided additional evidence on May 12. Both Solana and XRP ETFs registered significant inflows on that date, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows. Some market analysts interpreted this flow pattern as evidence that institutional investors are beginning to allocate capital toward alternative digital assets.
Nevertheless, several factors warrant measured expectations. The AltSeason Index achieved its cycle maximum in early 2024 but failed to match the elevated levels observed in previous altseason episodes. Bitcoin’s market dominance has maintained an upward trajectory since 2023 and currently sits near its strongest position since November 2025, indicating the overarching trend continues to favor Bitcoin.
The altcoin season index tracked by CoinGlass also retreated to 38 after touching 46 on May 12, reflecting a modest cooling of sentiment from earlier in the month.
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