TLDR
- BTC declined to $79,800 following a rejection at the $82,800 resistance zone
- Spot Bitcoin ETF weekly inflows reached $1.105 billion — marking the strongest performance since January
- Critical support lies within the $76,000–$78,000 range, coinciding with the 200-day EMA
- Crypto analyst Ali Charts highlights $80,300 as the pivotal whale acquisition cost basis level
- Glassnode analysis points to $85,200 as the subsequent major overhead resistance
Bitcoin breached the $80,000 threshold on Thursday following a rejection at the $82,800 level, sliding to an intraday low of $79,800. This downturn occurred even as ETF products registered their strongest weekly inflow performance exceeding $1 billion since the start of the year.
Technical indicators revealed bearish divergences on both the one-hour and four-hour RSI timeframes, suggesting diminishing bullish momentum. Such divergences materialize when price action establishes higher peaks while the RSI indicator trends downward — typically indicating waning rally strength.
Cryptocurrency analyst Jelle identified the 200-day moving average alongside the EMA cluster functioning as resistance barriers, pinpointing $78,000 as the initial significant support region. Meanwhile, trader Killa XBT outlined a more substantial support band spanning $76,300 to $74,700 should bearish pressure intensify.
The weekly opening level at $78,500 represents the crucial near-term threshold that bulls are currently protecting. Beneath this point, the daily fair value gap extending from $76,000 to $78,000 intersects with the 200-day EMA, establishing a probable retrace target.
The $80,300 Whale Level
Crypto analyst Ali Charts emphasized $80,300 as the most significant price level demanding immediate attention. This figure corresponds to the average acquisition cost for recent whale accumulation — specifically entities that accumulated Bitcoin during the past 155 days.
When BTC trades beneath $80,300, these whale participants find themselves holding unrealized losses. Bitcoin momentarily rallied to $82,800 before retreating below this threshold. Sustained trading below $80,300 could trigger breakeven selling from these whales, potentially amplifying downward momentum.
Spot Bitcoin ETF products registered five consecutive days of positive net inflows through Wednesday, accumulating $1.69 billion — representing the longest inflow sequence since July 2025. Wednesday’s session alone contributed $46.3 million.
Glassnode’s analysis confirmed that Bitcoin has successfully surpassed two significant onchain thresholds: the True Market Mean positioned at $78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79,100. Trading above both metrics indicates most active participants have returned to profitability.
ETF Demand and the Road to $85,200
According to Swissblock data, the Bitcoin Risk Index has declined near zero territory, while ETF net flows have shifted positive at approximately 3,000 BTC. Swissblock’s assessment states, “ETF demand is absorbing selling pressure. This remains a flow-driven breakout.”
Data from Santiment revealed that Bitcoin’s wallet holder count decreased by 245,000 addresses over five days — representing the most rapid decline witnessed in nearly two years. Santiment observed this pattern resembles a June–July 2024 scenario where more than 964,000 wallets exited before a substantial bullish rally commenced.
Perpetual futures funding rates continue registering negative values despite BTC’s 26% rebound from February lows, indicating persistent short-seller activity. Glassnode data shows long-term holders are realizing approximately $180 million daily in profits — characterized as measured rather than aggressive distribution.
Glassnode’s subsequent price objective is the Active Realized Price at $85,200, which represents the cost basis of all actively circulating supply. This level is anticipated to present increased overhead supply resistance.
Bitcoin was hovering just beneath the $80,000 mark during Thursday’s U.S. trading session. Glassnode’s assessment indicates a sustained breakout above $85,200, supported by ongoing spot market demand, is necessary to validate that the recovery possesses fundamental strength.
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