Key Takeaways
- Nebius will release Q1 results on May 13, with analysts projecting revenue growth of approximately 578–600% year-over-year, reaching $375–389 million
- Shares have climbed more than 120% in 2025 and approximately 554% over the trailing twelve months, hovering near record levels around $196
- The firm’s contract pipeline stands at $46 billion, driven by a $27 billion Meta partnership and a $19.4 billion Microsoft arrangement
- The company recently completed a $643 million acquisition of AI startup Eigen AI, marking its second deal in under three months
- Wall Street consensus shows 8 of 10 analysts maintain Buy ratings; Goldman Sachs set a $205 price objective
Nebius approaches its Q1 financial report scheduled for May 13 with shares trading near record territory and significant analyst attention. The stock currently hovers around $196, marking a dramatic rise from below $27 twelve months prior.
Wall Street forecasts quarterly revenue between $375–389 million, representing a year-over-year expansion of approximately 578–600%. The business remains unprofitable at present. Analyst consensus points to a loss per share of $0.77, wider than the $0.41 loss recorded in Q1 2025.
While top-line figures carry weight, market participants will zero in on a more critical question: can Nebius successfully convert its $46 billion contract pipeline into tangible operating cash generation?
This substantial backlog stems from three cornerstone agreements. The largest is a $27 billion arrangement with Meta, finalized in March. This deal encompasses $12 billion in dedicated AI infrastructure over a five-year period beginning early 2027, alongside a $15 billion option for additional capacity. A $19.4 billion supply contract with Microsoft and a $2 billion strategic stake from Nvidia complete the framework.
Planned capital spending for 2026 reaches significant scale — projected between $16 billion and $20 billion. Company leadership indicates that contract-backed funding will finance approximately 60% of this outlay. A recently completed $4.34 billion convertible debt issuance provides additional financial flexibility.
For calendar year 2026, executive guidance calls for revenue ranging from $3 billion to $3.4 billion. The medium-term objective targets an annualized revenue run rate of $7–9 billion by year-end 2026, up sharply from $1.25 billion at the conclusion of 2025.
A notable milestone from Q4 2025: adjusted EBITDA achieved profitability for the first time, reaching $15 million compared to a roughly $64 million deficit one year earlier. The AI cloud division delivered a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin.
The Eigen AI Deal
Just two weeks ahead of the earnings announcement, Nebius revealed plans to acquire Eigen AI, a 20-person startup founded by MIT graduates, for $643 million. The transaction structure includes up to $98 million in cash consideration and 3.8 million Class A ordinary shares.
Eigen’s core expertise centers on post-training optimization for open-source language models — including quantization techniques, KV-cache enhancements, and specialized CUDA kernel development. The two organizations have already jointly launched optimized iterations of DeepSeek, Llama, and Qwen models, achieving inference speeds reaching 911 tokens per second.
This technology will integrate into Nebius’ Token Factory offering. The acquisition represents the company’s second strategic purchase in three months, following the $275 million Tavily transaction in February. Both transactions signal Nebius’ strategic shift beyond pure infrastructure provision toward higher-margin platform services.
Analyst Perspectives
Goldman Sachs elevated its price objective to $205 following the Meta announcement, increasing revenue projections for 2027–2030 by 30–54%, while maintaining a Buy recommendation.
Wolfe Research launched coverage with a Neutral stance and established a fair value bandwidth of $80–$170, acknowledging strong demand fundamentals while highlighting execution and capital structure uncertainties. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and $129 target. Freedom Capital Markets moved to Hold after the stock jumped 70% from its February call.
Currently, eight of ten covering analysts maintain Buy recommendations on NBIS. The consensus price target stands at $174.33.
Institutional ownership remains relatively modest at 22%. Millennium Management established a fresh position, UBS expanded its stake, and Oppenheimer increased holdings by nearly 91% during Q4.
The quarterly earnings conference call is scheduled for 8 a.m. Eastern Time on May 13.
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