Key Takeaways
- NBIS shares surged 14.69% following the announcement of a collaboration with Bloom Energy to supply AI data centers with fuel cell power.
- The initial deployment will provide 328 MW of capacity, with operations scheduled to begin in late 2025.
- Nebius aims to achieve 800 MW to 1 GW of connected capacity by the close of 2026 — approximately four to five times its current 2025 levels.
- The firm has exceeded 3.5 GW in contracted power agreements and increased its 2026 target to above 4 GW.
- Analysts assign NBIS a Moderate Buy rating, with a consensus price target of $221.71.
Shares of Nebius (NBIS) climbed 14.69% during Thursday’s trading session after revealing a collaboration with Bloom Energy (BE), whose stock also gained 8.93% on the announcement.
The agreement will integrate Bloom’s solid oxide fuel cell systems into Nebius’ growing AI infrastructure portfolio. These fuel cells produce electricity through an electrochemical process rather than combustion, resulting in reduced emissions, minimal water consumption, and streamlined permitting compared to conventional power generation.
The permitting advantage is particularly significant. In today’s AI infrastructure race, speed to deployment often determines competitive positioning.
“Clean power with virtually no pollutants is deployed onsite, on the timelines our customers need, with the availability AI workloads require,” commented Andrey Korolenko, chief infrastructure officer at Nebius.
The partners anticipate their inaugural collaboration — featuring 328 MW of installed capacity — will commence operations before year-end.
Energy Access Becomes the Critical Constraint
Power availability has emerged as the primary limitation for AI data center expansion. Leading cloud providers from Amazon to Alphabet have consistently highlighted this challenge in recent quarterly reports: computational demand is exceeding available energy infrastructure.
Nebius has structured its operations specifically to address this bottleneck. The company provides clients with dedicated AI infrastructure, cutting-edge GPU resources, and guaranteed power capacity — all deployable faster than traditional hyperscale providers can typically deliver.
During the first quarter, Nebius fulfilled capacity obligations to major clients including Microsoft and Meta. The company has now secured more than 3.5 GW in contracted power, surpassing its earlier 3 GW objective, and has elevated its 2026 contracted power forecast to exceed 4 GW.
Management is projecting 800 MW to 1 GW of operational capacity by year-end 2026, representing a substantial increase from approximately 220 MW at 2025’s conclusion.
Aggressive Growth Requires Substantial Capital
Nebius projects revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion for 2026, with annualized recurring revenue (ARR) ranging from $7 billion to $9 billion. Achieving 1 GW of connected capacity monetized at $11 million ARR per MW would generate an $11 billion theoretical run-rate.
Current Wall Street estimates place FY2027 revenue at $10.9 billion — indicating the market has already incorporated the upper range of company projections.
Financing this expansion requires $20–$25 billion in capital expenditures during 2026, representing approximately 600–800% of projected revenue for that period. This capital has been sourced partially through equity offerings and convertible notes. Share count has increased roughly 6.4% from the 2025 trough.
Executives anticipate customer prepayments will constitute a major funding source moving forward.
Notwithstanding the dilution, ARR per share is projected to increase by triple-digit percentages in 2026, which analysts suggest substantially outweighs the expanded share base.
Among nine analyst evaluations published in the last three months, six recommend Buy ratings while three advise Hold positions. The mean price target reaches $221.71, suggesting approximately 0.81% potential appreciation from present trading levels.
NBIS currently commands a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 4.6x projected FY2027 revenue, modestly higher than the sector median of 3.7x.
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