TLDR
- First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $399 million for Nebius, marking a 684% year-over-year surge and crushing EPS forecasts by 71.6%
- Citi elevated its NBIS price target to $287 from $169—the highest on Wall Street—while reaffirming its Buy recommendation
- Shares have climbed 138% in 2026 and an impressive 434% over 12 months, pushing market capitalization near $55.65 billion
- Major contracts include approximately $27 billion with Meta and $17.4 billion with Microsoft, plus a $2 billion Nvidia investment
- Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 increased to $20–$25 billion, with year-end revenue run rate projected at $7–$9 billion
Nebius Group delivered stunning first-quarter performance that caught Wall Street’s attention, earning the company a new Street-leading price target from Citi as momentum builds around its AI cloud business.
First-quarter 2026 revenue reached $399 million, representing a massive 684% increase from the prior year’s $50.9 million. The figure significantly exceeded analyst projections. Earnings per share registered at -$0.23 versus the -$0.81 consensus, delivering a remarkable 71.6% beat.
Shares rallied 15.72% following the earnings announcement. Year-to-date gains now stand at 138%, while the 52-week performance shows an extraordinary 434% advance.
Citi responded swiftly to the results, upgrading its price objective to $287 from the previous $169 mark—establishing the highest target among Wall Street firms—while maintaining its Buy recommendation. The rationale centered on Nebius’s exceptional growth trajectory and substantial infrastructure agreements underpinning future performance.
The company’s AI Cloud division powered results, surging 841% to reach $390 million. Adjusted EBITDA transformed from a $53.7 million deficit to a $129.5 million gain. Net income from continuing operations reversed course from a $104.3 million loss to a $621.2 million profit.
Challenges remain visible. Adjusted net loss expanded to $100.3 million compared to $83.6 million previously, underscoring the substantial investment required for rapid expansion. The company simultaneously increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $20–$25 billion from the earlier $16–$20 billion range.
Major Partnerships Fuel Long-Term Pipeline
Substantial infrastructure agreements provide Nebius with significant revenue visibility. A multi-year arrangement worth nearly $27 billion with Meta and a separate $17.4 billion commitment from Microsoft establish a robust growth foundation. Nvidia’s $2 billion March investment includes collaboration on cloud infrastructure supporting robotics and physical AI applications.
Construction has commenced on a gigawatt-scale AI facility in Independence, Missouri. The company also secured a 1.2 GW power agreement connected to a possible $20 billion U.S. expansion initiative.
Nebius owns over 75% of its contracted power capacity—an exceptionally high percentage among AI cloud providers. This ownership structure provides superior margin control and cost management compared to competitors relying predominantly on leased infrastructure.
Strategic Acquisitions Broaden Capabilities
Nebius continues building out its technology stack through targeted acquisitions. The company plans to acquire Eigen AI, reinforcing its Token Factory inference platform, while bringing aboard Clarifai’s core engineering team and licensing inference intellectual property to enhance model deployment capabilities.
An agreement to acquire Tavily adds agentic search functionality to the cloud portfolio. A strategic partnership with CrowdStrike integrates comprehensive security features across its next-generation cloud infrastructure.
The launch of Nebius AI Cloud 3.5 introduced serverless AI capabilities, enabling developers to access on-demand computing resources without infrastructure management responsibilities.
Financially, Nebius maintained $9.3 billion in cash reserves against $8.4 billion in long-term obligations at quarter-end.
Management projects an annual revenue run rate between $7–$9 billion by the conclusion of 2026. The company’s second-quarter earnings release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Current analyst consensus estimates Q2 2026 EPS at -$0.69.
Among 14 covering analysts, the consensus rating stands at “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $205.20.
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