Key Takeaways
- Robinhood (HOOD) stock has recovered approximately 33% from March lows but still trades 23% below year-to-date highs
- Bernstein maintains Outperform stance with $130 target, suggesting roughly 50% potential upside
- Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein argues first-quarter weakness is already reflected in current valuation
- Firm’s 2026 crypto revenue projection exceeds consensus by 31%; prediction market estimates 30% higher
- Forecast calls for prediction market revenue to explode 286% annually to approximately $586 million in 2026
Robinhood’s shares have experienced significant turbulence. Trading at $71.67, the stock sits 53% below its 52-week peak of $153.86 and has declined 23% since the year began. Diminished trading activity, weakening crypto-related income, and challenging macroeconomic conditions have weighed on performance.
Yet Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani maintains conviction in the trading platform’s prospects.
Ahead of Robinhood’s first-quarter 2026 earnings scheduled for April 28, he’s reaffirmed his Outperform rating alongside a $130 price objective. This represents approximately 50% appreciation potential from current trading levels.
Chhugani’s thesis centers on a straightforward premise: disappointing Q1 results are already embedded in share prices, positioning investors to focus on forward-looking catalysts.
Cryptocurrency Renaissance Expected to Drive Growth
Chhugani contends that Bitcoin has established a price floor and anticipates a substantial crypto market recovery beginning in the second quarter.
His projections show Robinhood’s cryptocurrency-related revenues climbing 23% year-over-year to reach $1.1 billion throughout 2026. This segment would contribute approximately 15% of overall revenue expansion. A broader digital asset price recovery during the latter half should energize retail participation and enhance profit margins.
The Bitstamp acquisition, completed last June for $200 million, receives particular emphasis. Chhugani characterizes it as a “key differentiator,” highlighting its rapid scaling in institutional markets where it now generates roughly 60% of total cryptocurrency transaction volume.
Bernstein’s 2026 crypto revenue forecast exceeds Wall Street consensus by 31%. Looking toward 2027, their projections run 18% above consensus on revenues and 25% higher on earnings per share.
Prediction Markets Emerge as Premier Revenue Accelerator
Chhugani identifies prediction markets as the most significant incremental growth engine for Robinhood throughout 2026.
This segment’s revenue is anticipated to skyrocket from approximately $150 million in 2025 to around $586 million in 2026—representing 286% year-over-year expansion. It would comprise roughly 17% of transaction-derived revenues while contributing about 30% of total revenue growth.
The analyst highlights an event-packed calendar ahead: America hosts the Football World Cup during summer 2026, while midterm elections in the fall should generate substantial political event wagering.
From a market share perspective, Robinhood currently captures just 4% of the total addressable brokerage revenue market. Its retail trading revenue share expanded from 11% in 2024 to 14% in 2025, aided by diversification into cryptocurrency and prediction markets.
Bernstein’s 2026 revenue estimate exceeds consensus by 9%, with earnings per share running 16% higher. For 2027, revenue projections sit 18% above consensus while EPS forecasts are 25% elevated.
However, not all Wall Street analysts share this optimism. Truist reduced its price objective to $100 from $120, expressing concerns about transaction revenue softness. Mizuho trimmed its target to $105 from $110, highlighting weaker net interest income. Citizens lowered its target to $155 from $180 after adjusting Q1 2026 EBITDA projections downward to $573.1 million, beneath consensus expectations.
Among 17 analysts providing coverage, 14 assign Buy ratings while 3 recommend Hold, yielding a Strong Buy consensus. The average price target stands at $104.56, implying approximately 20% upside from present levels.
First-quarter earnings are scheduled for release on April 28.
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