TLDR
- Tempus AI delivered Q1 revenue of $348.1M, marking a 36.1% year-over-year increase and surpassing the $345.4M estimate
- The company’s adjusted loss of $0.13 per share came in better than the $0.20 consensus, though GAAP loss expanded to $0.70 per share
- 2026 revenue guidance was increased to $1.59–$1.60B, but the midpoint merely aligned with analyst forecasts
- TEM shares plummeted 7.2% in after-hours trading following a regular session close at $54.07
- Wall Street maintains a “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target of $71.36
Tempus AI (TEM) delivered quarterly results that exceeded both revenue and adjusted earnings expectations for Q1, yet investors sent shares down 7.2% in after-hours trading Tuesday following the release of underwhelming full-year projections.
For the quarter ending March 31, the healthcare technology company posted revenue of $348.1 million, representing a 36.1% year-over-year surge and topping the Street’s $345.4 million forecast. Shares had closed the regular trading session at $54.07 before the post-market decline.
On an adjusted basis, the company reported a loss of $0.13 per share, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $0.20. However, the GAAP loss expanded to $0.70 per share — missing analyst projections.
The company’s net loss for the period expanded to $125.9 million, compared to $68.0 million during the same quarter in 2025. This figure incorporated $56.3 million in stock-based compensation expenses and $32.3 million in unrealized losses tied to marketable securities.
The Diagnostics division generated $261.1 million in revenue, up 34.7% from the prior year period. Oncology testing volume expanded by 28%, while minimal residual disease (MRD) testing experienced explosive growth of approximately 500% year-over-year, reaching roughly 6,500 tests.
Data and Applications revenue climbed 40.5% to $87.0 million. The Insights component of this segment posted 44.1% growth. Notably, this marked the third consecutive quarter where bookings exceeded $100 million.
Gross profit increased 43.1% year-over-year to $222.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA showed improvement, narrowing to a loss of $2.8 million compared to a $16.2 million loss in the year-ago quarter.
Guidance Underwhelms
Tempus lifted its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of $1.59–$1.60 billion, implying approximately 25% annual growth. However, the $1.595 billion midpoint barely exceeded the analyst consensus of $1.592 billion — offering investors little upside surprise.
The company maintained its adjusted EBITDA forecast at approximately $65 million for the full year. During the earnings call, management emphasized that no additional capital raising would be necessary and projected free cash flow improvements beginning in Q2.
Some areas showed weakness during the quarter. Hereditary testing experienced a slowdown, though management anticipates a return to mid-teens growth rates during the second half of the year. Reimbursement challenges are also moderating the pace of MRD expansion.
Analyst and Insider Activity
Insider selling has been notable. Over the past 90 days, company insiders offloaded 563,471 shares valued at approximately $29.8 million. CAO Ryan Bartolucci and EVP Andrew Polovin were among executives who reduced their holdings in February.
Analyst sentiment remains divided. Needham maintains a Buy rating with a $75 price target. Morgan Stanley reduced its target from $85 to $70 while keeping an Overweight recommendation. Guggenheim lowered its target from $95 to $60 but retained its Buy rating. Jefferies initiated coverage with an Underperform rating and a $35 price target.
The overall analyst consensus stands at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $71.36, significantly above current trading levels.
Institutional ownership has increased in recent quarters. Invesco expanded its position by more than 2,900%, while Royal Bank of Canada boosted its stake by 201%.
The stock’s 52-week trading range spans from $41.73 to $104.32, with the 200-day moving average positioned at $62.91.
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