Executive Summary
- Investment bank Macquarie projects $50 billion in worldwide 2026 FIFA World Cup wagering
- Despite hosting the tournament, the U.S. will contribute approximately 5% of total legal global betting handle
- Average betting volume per match projected at $500 million, matching 2022 World Cup figures
- Macquarie’s analysis excludes prediction market platforms from its projections
- Flutter Entertainment, Super Group, and Rush Street Interactive identified as primary beneficiaries
The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup promises to shatter records as the most heavily wagered sporting event ever staged. Financial services firm Macquarie has projected worldwide betting handle will reach $50 billion throughout the tournament. However, the United States market, despite its rapidly expanding sports wagering industry, will contribute far less than many industry observers might anticipate.
According to Macquarie’s analysis, American bettors will account for approximately 5% of total legal worldwide betting activity during the World Cup. This translates to an estimated $2.5 billion of the overall handle.
Chad Beynon, who serves as Senior Gaming, Lodging and Theatres Analyst at Macquarie, provided insight into why expansion in the American market has limited impact on worldwide totals.
“Even if we assumed 40% growth in the US, it would be quite insignificant,” he said.
Average Match Wagering Remains Consistent With Previous Tournament
Macquarie’s projection of approximately $500 million in betting volume per individual match mirrors the figures recorded during the 2022 World Cup held in Qatar. This consistency is notable given that the 2026 tournament will take place across North America, and regulated sports wagering has undergone significant expansion throughout the United States in the intervening years.
Beynon also noted that the tournament’s expanded structure might dilute wagering across individual contests. With an increased number of matches scheduled, the betting handle per game could potentially decrease compared to a more compact tournament format.
The $50 billion worldwide projection encompasses only regulated sports betting operations. Offshore and unregulated betting activity is not included in this estimate.
For perspective, Macquarie calculated that total legal sports betting volume across all sporting events globally reached between $600 billion and $700 billion in 2022. The firm’s model assumes that throughout the approximately five-week World Cup period, roughly half of all global wagering will be directed toward World Cup matches.
Prediction Platforms Excluded From Projections
Macquarie’s World Cup betting forecast does not account for prediction market platforms. The investment bank has not developed a dedicated projection model for these platforms specific to the tournament.
Beynon indicated that prediction markets will most likely gain traction among users in American states where regulated online sportsbooks remain unavailable. He does not anticipate these platforms will significantly draw existing sportsbook users away from their current betting channels.
“Our base case is that users who are already accustomed to online sports betting apps will stick with them,” he said.
The 2026 World Cup is projected to deliver a 2% to 5% increase to operator earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during 2027.
Macquarie identified Flutter Entertainment, Super Group, and Rush Street Interactive as the gaming operators most strategically positioned to capitalize on the tournament.
The World Cup will commence across the United States, Canada, and Mexico this summer, with group stage competition spanning from mid-June into early July.
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