Key Takeaways
- Asian gaming revenue projected to expand 5-6% annually over the coming 12-18 months, according to Moody’s Ratings
- Macau positioned to outperform with 6% revenue growth in 2026, moderating to 4-5% in 2027
- Southeast Asian casino markets expected to lag due to greater dependence on air connectivity and fuel cost sensitivity
- Genting Bhd and Genting Singapore projected to see divergent performance in 2026, while NagaCorp maintains stability
- Macau casino operators collectively forecast to achieve $8.6-$8.7 billion in earnings with 6-7% growth in 2026
A Tuesday sector analysis from Moody’s Ratings projects that Asian gaming markets will experience revenue expansion of 5% to 6% throughout the next 12 to 18 months.
Growth rates will vary significantly across the region. According to Moody’s assessment, these differences largely stem from varying customer sensitivity to fuel price fluctuations in different markets.
Macau Positioned as Regional Growth Driver
The Chinese special administrative region of Macau is forecast to outperform other Asian casino markets. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian gaming hubs are anticipated to trail behind.
Moody’s attributes Macau’s advantages to geographic proximity to mainland China. The prevalence of short-haul domestic flights from China is expected to sustain consistent visitation levels.
The rating agency anticipates Macau’s gross gaming revenue will climb 6% during 2026. This expansion is projected to moderate to a 4-5% increase in 2027.
Under this scenario, Macau’s gaming revenue would recover to approximately 90% of 2019 levels in 2026. The following year would see recovery reach 90-95% of pre-pandemic benchmarks.
Macau’s VIP gaming segment has contracted substantially in recent years. Moody’s forecasts this premium segment will remain at roughly 30% or below of overall gaming revenue.
According to Moody’s, reduced competitive intensity among casino licensees is providing support. Facility enhancements and new property launches are also anticipated to bolster profitability.
Collective earnings across Macau’s casino operators are projected to rise 6-7% in 2026. This growth trajectory would push combined earnings to between $8.6 billion and $8.7 billion.
Transportation Costs Weigh on Southeast Asian Operators
Casino resorts throughout Southeast Asia rely more heavily on air travel for customer acquisition. This structural difference leaves them more vulnerable to aviation fuel price volatility compared to Macau properties.
Consequently, Moody’s anticipates Southeast Asian gaming revenue growth will remain in single-digit territory during both 2026 and 2027.
Genting Bhd’s earnings are forecast to climb to a range of MYR8.9 billion to MYR10.0 billion during 2026-2027. This represents an increase from the MYR8.2 billion recorded in 2025, driven by the company’s Resorts World New York City development.
The company’s flagship Malaysian operations, centered on its Resorts World Genting property outside Kuala Lumpur, are expected to maintain relatively flat performance. Rising operational expenses are likely to offset revenue improvements in that market.
Genting Singapore faces a projected 5% earnings decline in 2026. This would reduce earnings to SGD836 million from SGD888 million in 2025, with a rebound to SGD880 million anticipated in 2027.
NagaCorp is expected to maintain consistent performance, with earnings holding near the $400 million annual mark. Moody’s cited stable visitation patterns and efficient cost management at the Phnom Penh-based operator.
Regarding leverage, Moody’s indicated that most Macau operators should see balance sheet improvements primarily through earnings expansion. Substantial capital expenditures and shareholder distributions will constrain direct debt reduction efforts.
SJM Holdings is anticipated to maintain elevated debt levels throughout 2026. The agency expects this pressure to diminish as additional gaming tables become operational.
Genting’s consolidated debt position is projected to remain elevated through 2026 and 2027 due to significant capital investments. Conversely, NagaCorp is forecast to sustain minimal leverage.
Moody’s noted that Macau operators face concentrated bond maturity schedules in 2028 and 2029. Annual repayment obligations during those years are projected to range between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion.
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