Key Takeaways
- Bernstein assigns SpaceX an Outperform rating with a $248 target, suggesting 74% potential upside from present levels.
- The firm anticipates SpaceX’s AI-related revenue to surge from $24.6 billion in 2026 to $115.1 billion by 2027.
- Shares of power sector companies declined after SpaceX announced plans to manufacture turbine blades.
- Industry analysts largely downplayed concerns, noting it would take over four years for meaningful production capacity.
- Citi placed Howmet Aerospace on upside catalyst watch, while Deutsche Bank selected it as its preferred aerospace supplier stock.
Shares of SpaceX closed Wednesday at $141.04, declining 0.8% despite broader market strength. The S&P 500 advanced 0.55% while the Dow Jones climbed 0.77%.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Elon Musk’s aerospace venture has experienced an eventful week. Over the past month, SpaceX shares have climbed approximately 25%, accompanied by a steady stream of corporate developments.
Douglas Harned, analyst at Bernstein, maintains an Outperform stance on SpaceX shares with a $248 target price. This projection represents approximately 74% appreciation potential from current trading levels. Harned’s forecast calls for AI-generated revenue to expand dramatically from $24.6 billion in 2026 to $115.1 billion the following year, positioning artificial intelligence as the dominant revenue contributor.
According to Bernstein’s estimates, overall revenue should reach $46.4 billion in 2026 before accelerating to $150.4 billion in 2027. The artificial intelligence segment accounts for the majority of this projected expansion.
The investment thesis extends well beyond launch services. Bernstein identifies orbital data centers as a significant long-term growth catalyst. The company is developing Starbase Louisiana across 125,000 acres, with groundbreaking scheduled for 2027 and an inaugural Starship launch from the location planned for 2029. The complex is designed to accommodate a minimum of 10 launch pads, eventually supporting more than 30 Starship missions daily.
Recently, SpaceX finalized its purchase of Cursor, integrating coding capabilities into its Grok AI ecosystem. Bernstein believes this acquisition could unlock AI services as a distinct revenue channel beyond computing infrastructure.
Starlink and Terafab Bolster Growth Prospects
Bernstein projects Starlink connectivity revenue at $17.0 billion in 2026, climbing to $27.7 billion in 2027, and ultimately reaching $205.9 billion by 2031. The aviation market continues expanding, with 46 airlines now participating. Qatar Airways broadened its deployment in August, while Royal Air Maroc recently became a customer.
SpaceX’s proposed Terafab semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas represents another strategic initiative. The opening phase alone is projected to demand approximately $16.8 billion in capital investment.
The Wall Street consensus price target for SpaceX stands at $231.63, indicating 64% potential appreciation. The overall rating is Moderate Buy, comprising 25 Buy ratings, five Hold recommendations, and three Sell opinions since the initial public offering.
Power Equipment Stocks Decline on Manufacturing News
SpaceX’s announcement regarding turbine blade production triggered significant volatility across power equipment manufacturers. Howmet Aerospace declined roughly 4% through midweek. GE Vernova and Siemens Energy fell approximately 3% and 6%, respectively. Caterpillar and Cummins also experienced losses.
Analysts quickly challenged the negative reaction. Citi designated Howmet for upside catalyst monitoring, characterizing the selloff as excessive. Deutsche Bank selected Howmet as its preferred aerospace supplier investment with 35% upside potential. Jefferies emphasized that establishing meaningful single-crystal casting capability would require a minimum of four years for any new competitor.
22V Research suggested that SpaceX’s more probable near-term strategy involves producing replacement components for its proprietary power generation assets rather than directly competing with established casting operations. Earlier this year, SpaceX acquired APR Energy, which operates power generation equipment utilizing turbines from suppliers including GE Vernova.
Despite positive analyst commentary, Howmet shares remained down 1.2% on Wednesday.
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