TLDR
- Grayscale Research claims Bitcoin reached its bottom in the $65,000-$70,000 range during February 2026
- On-chain metrics indicate recent purchasers are approaching breakeven levels near $74,000
- BTC reached a 3-month peak at $78,417 following Trump’s extension of the US-Iran ceasefire
- The Bitcoin Bull Score Index entered neutral territory for the first time during this downturn
- Prominent analysts including Benjamin Cowen and CryptoQuant anticipate a more significant low in late 2026
Grayscale Research has declared that Bitcoin has already bottomed out. According to the firm, BTC reached its lowest point within the $65,000 to $70,000 bracket in February 2026. However, this perspective faces significant opposition.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research and ex-Goldman Sachs macro strategist, referenced on-chain analytics to support this assessment. Following a surge exceeding 20% from its February 5 bottom near $63,000, Bitcoin has brought recent purchasers close to their entry points.
The primary indicator Grayscale examined is the realized price metric. This measurement calculates the average acquisition cost of coins determined by their most recent on-chain movement. For tokens that transferred ownership within the preceding one to three months, this realized price hovers around $74,000 — marginally beneath Bitcoin’s current trading level.
“Should Bitcoin’s value continue climbing in the upcoming days, additional recent purchasers would achieve profitable positions, which may signal the initial stage of a bull market,” Pandl stated.
Bitcoin reached a 3-month pinnacle of $78,417 on April 22, 2026. This upward movement occurred as President Donald Trump prolonged the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, driving oil prices beneath $90 per barrel. At press time, BTC traded around $77,990, with trading volume increasing 14% over 24 hours.
Bull Market Index Shifts for First Time
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research director, reported that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has transitioned into neutral range for the first time throughout this bear market cycle. While this represents a noteworthy development, Moreno highlighted that a similar occurrence transpired briefly in March 2022 before Bitcoin resumed its decline.
Derivatives markets also displayed bullish indicators. Aggregate BTC futures open interest expanded almost 6% to $59.53 billion within 24 hours. CME open interest increased approximately 1% while Binance saw a 6% jump.
10x Research observed that April spot Bitcoin ETF flows are trending bullish, despite negative funding rates and subdued trading volumes. The firm additionally noted that institutional accumulation is emerging earlier in this cycle compared to the previous two recovery periods.
Other Analysts Still Expect a Deeper Low
Not all market observers align with Grayscale’s outlook. Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and former NASA researcher, informed BeInCrypto that his primary scenario places the cycle bottom in October 2026. He emphasized that an earlier bottom would require capitulation far exceeding typical mid-term year patterns.
“Bitcoin could reach its bottom earlier, potentially as soon as May. However, for that scenario to materialize, there would need to be substantial capitulation significantly below historical midterm year expectations,” Cowen explained.
Joao Wedson, CEO of on-chain analytics platform Alphractal, forecasts a bottom in late September or early October 2026. CryptoQuant has established a wider timeframe spanning June through December 2026, identifying September to November as the most probable period.
Bitcoin has also breached analyst Benjamin Cowen’s bear-market resistance band on the weekly timeframe. Historically, this level has represented critical inflection points for the cryptocurrency.
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