TLDR
- CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator switched to bullish territory May 12, marking the first occurrence since March 2023
- When this signal last appeared in March 2023, Bitcoin subsequently surged from $20,000 to surpass $73,000
- Market observers caution that a March 2022 false signal means confirmation isn’t automatic
- Breaking above the $82,000 resistance threshold is necessary to validate this bullish signal
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projects $90,000 as the catalyst level that could propel prices toward $126,000
For the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin’s CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has shifted into positive territory. This transition occurred May 12, coinciding with Bitcoin trading above the $80,000 mark following an approximate 35% recovery from February’s $60,000 bottom.
This analytical tool derives from CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, incorporating the MVRV ratio, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), and the relationship between Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR measurements. According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s research director, this development “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed.”
The most recent validated bullish reading emerged in March 2023 and remained active through August 2024. Throughout that timeframe, Bitcoin’s value increased from approximately $20,000 to establish a new peak exceeding $73,000.
Institutional investment in spot [[LINK_START_0]]Bitcoin[[LINK_END_0]] exchange-traded products totaled $2.44 billion during April, representing the most robust monthly accumulation since October 2025. Meanwhile, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently registers at 4.5, the third-highest measurement in Bitcoin’s recorded history. Only the 2015 and 2022 cycle troughs produced comparable figures.
Why Analysts Are Cautious
Not all market observers interpret this development as definitive confirmation of renewed bullish momentum. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan characterized the indicator as a regime-transition instrument rather than a forecasting mechanism. He emphasized it proves “most useful for identifying when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset.”
According to Greenspan, genuine confirmation depends on persistent demand, sufficient liquidity, and price stability at elevated thresholds. “So now all eyes are on price action to confirm validation,” he noted.
The primary historical anomaly occurred in March 2022. During that period, the indicator temporarily flashed green before Bitcoin continued its decline deep into 2023. Analysts reference this precedent as justification for measured expectations currently.
Moreno additionally highlighted weakening momentum in various supplementary measurements. The Fear and Greed index presently shows neutral sentiment, while broader economic conditions remain multifaceted.
The $82,000 Level to Watch
Bitcoin has repeatedly encountered resistance at the $82,000 threshold, unable to establish a convincing breakthrough above this technical barrier. Moreno emphasized that surpassing this ceiling represents a prerequisite before the bullish indication can receive price-action validation.
AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes explained that indicators such as MVRV and NUPL “were never designed to be precise trading signals.” He positioned them as conceptual frameworks for assessing Bitcoin’s location within broader liquidity phases.
Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes contends Bitcoin already established its cyclical low at $60,000 during early 2026. He pinpointed $90,000 as the threshold where upward momentum would accelerate significantly, targeting the previous all-time high of $126,000 as the subsequent objective.
Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang suggested Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” referencing substantial institutional backing and persistent ETF capital inflows as foundational elements.
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