Key Takeaways
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes describes the current cryptocurrency landscape as a “no-trade zone” influenced by artificial intelligence disruption and escalating Middle East tensions
- Hayes presents three distinct pathways that could drive Bitcoin toward the $80,000–$90,000 price range
- The Maelstrom chief investment officer plans to stay away from Bitcoin purchases until the Federal Reserve commits to monetary expansion
- His current investment strategy focuses exclusively on gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token
- Hayes anticipates Hyperliquid capturing significant user base from prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, revealed that his trading activity during 2025’s opening quarter has been minimal. In an April 15 publication, he characterized today’s cryptocurrency environment as a “no-trade zone.”
According to Hayes, his conservative stance stems from two dominant factors: the acceleration of artificial intelligence agents displacing traditional knowledge-based employees, and the ongoing military standoff between the United States and Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The BitMEX founder contends that widespread AI-driven workforce replacement may catalyze a significant surge in consumer credit failures. He draws parallels between this emerging scenario and the 2008 financial crisis triggered by subprime mortgages.
Hayes notes that corporate layoffs are already accelerating. He highlighted a specific case involving a cryptocurrency gaming company executive who leveraged AI tools to accomplish a half-year development timeline in just four days, subsequently reducing his workforce by half.
The typical unemployment compensation in the United States amounts to approximately $28,000 annually. Meanwhile, the average knowledge worker commands a salary between $85,000 and $90,000. Hayes argues this substantial income disparity will precipitate widespread banking loan defaults.
Hayes Maps Out Three Bitcoin Trajectories
The Maelstrom CIO presents three distinct scenarios connected to the ongoing conflict.
The initial scenario envisions a resolution to military hostilities with a return to standard conditions. However, deflationary pressures from AI advancement persist, ultimately compelling the Federal Reserve to implement monetary expansion to forestall banking sector failure.
The second pathway sees Iran maintaining its strategic position over the Strait of Hormuz while implementing toll systems denominated in yuan, cryptocurrency, or gold. Under this framework, nations would liquidate US dollar-denominated holdings to satisfy toll requirements, creating downward momentum for treasuries, equities, and Bitcoin.
The third alternative involves US military forces eliminating Iran’s capacity to control the strategic waterway. Hayes anticipates Iran would respond with attacks on Persian Gulf energy facilities, prompting worldwide central banks to activate money printing measures.
Across all three scenarios, Hayes maintains that monetary expansion becomes inevitable. Nevertheless, he refuses to acquire Bitcoin before the Federal Reserve takes concrete action. While he acknowledges Bitcoin might surge toward $80,000–$90,000, he judges the current risk-reward ratio as unfavorable.
Gold and HYPE Token Receive Hayes’ Backing
Bitcoin has climbed more than 7% during the previous seven days, with prices hovering above $75,000. Hayes acknowledges this modest strength versus US technology sector stocks as a positive indicator, though insufficient to alter his current market perspective.
He monitors the MOVE Index as his primary signal—this metric measures volatility within US bond markets. Should the index exceed 130, he anticipates some manifestation of monetary expansion will materialize.
Currently, Hayes confirms that Maelstrom’s portfolio additions are restricted to physical gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold prices are hovering near $4,830, showing approximately 1% gains today. HYPE has surged 18% across the past week, currently valued at $45.31.
Hayes expects Hyperliquid’s forthcoming HIP-4 implementation will catalyze a substantial price increase for HYPE. He forecasts the decentralized platform will capture meaningful market share from established prediction market operators Polymarket and Kalshi.
HYPE has appreciated 18% over the trailing seven-day period, with current trading at $45.31 as of this writing.
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