Key Takeaways
- Viasat’s Q4 results showed Ebitda of $370M and revenue of $1.2B, falling marginally short of analyst projections
- Loss per share of -$0.02 significantly outperformed the anticipated -$0.43 — representing a 95% upside surprise
- Shares declined approximately 9% on Friday following the report, despite the impressive EPS performance and after climbing 846% in the prior 12 months
- Management’s fiscal 2027 outlook projects mid-single-digit revenue expansion with Ebitda remaining relatively unchanged year-over-year
- Barclays maintained its Equalweight stance with a $49 valuation target, suggesting the shares may be trading at stretched levels
Viasat (VSAT) presented quarterly results on Thursday that left Wall Street with a mixed impression. Investors responded decisively on Friday, sending shares down approximately 9% to trade around $79, following financial metrics that came tantalizingly close to expectations but ultimately fell short in key areas.
The satellite communications provider reported fourth-quarter Ebitda of $370 million against revenues totaling $1.2 billion. Analyst consensus had anticipated $383 million and $1.2 billion, respectively. While revenues advanced 2% compared to the prior-year period, they landed 2.4% beneath StreetAccount expectations. Adjusted Ebitda declined 1% year-over-year and came in 3.5% below consensus forecasts.
The earnings per share picture, however, painted a starkly different narrative. Viasat recorded a loss of just -$0.02 per share versus the anticipated -$0.43 — delivering a substantial 95% positive surprise. Wall Street analysts currently project the company will achieve profitability during fiscal 2027, with earnings per share forecasted at $1.38.
Forward Outlook Meets Expectations
Management issued fiscal 2027 guidance anticipating mid-single-digit percentage revenue growth alongside Ebitda that should remain flat to modestly higher on a year-over-year basis. Capital expenditures are projected between $950 million and $1 billion, with free cash flow expected around $180 million, excluding any lump-sum Ligado payments.
The Defense and Advanced Technologies division emerged as a performance highlight, delivering 12% revenue growth year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Communication Services revenues dipped 2%. Management’s forward guidance calls for defense revenues to expand in the mid-teens percentage range, while Communication Services should experience low single-digit growth.
Net indebtedness decreased on a sequential basis to $4.8 billion. The quarter’s free cash flow registered at $24 million — substantially below Barclays’ $91 million projection. Contract bookings increased 9% year-over-year, reaching $1.3 billion.
The SpaceX Halo Effect
A 9% single-session decline would typically draw significant attention for any publicly traded company. For Viasat, however, it represents barely a blip on the longer-term chart. Through Thursday’s market close, VSAT shares had surged an extraordinary 846% over the preceding 12-month period.
This remarkable ascent has been driven by a combination of tangible operational achievements — including securing a significant contract with the U.S. Space Force — and the expanding enthusiasm surrounding the commercial space industry more broadly. SpaceX’s expected public offering, with speculation pointing to a potential $2 trillion valuation, has created a rising tide lifting sentiment across space-sector equities.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has climbed 437% during the identical 12-month window. EchoStar, benefiting from spectrum transaction activity with SpaceX, has advanced approximately 557%.
Barclays reaffirmed its Equalweight assessment on VSAT Friday while maintaining a $49 price objective. With shares currently changing hands near $79 and approaching the 52-week peak of $89.78, that target suggests the investment bank envisions substantial downside potential. InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology similarly indicates the stock may be trading beyond fundamentally justified levels at present valuations.
Maritime business revenues are projected to achieve stability by late 2027. The Equatys D2D initiative remains on schedule for commercial service launch in 2029.
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