Key Takeaways
- Brazilian authorities have imposed a nationwide prohibition on prediction market platforms
- ANATEL is restricting access to 27 prediction market sites at the direction of finance authorities
- Prediction markets are being treated as unlawful gambling operations under Law 14.790/2023
- Beginning May 4, a new CMN regulation will ban derivative contracts based on non-financial outcomes
- Brazilian agencies have already restricted access to more than 39,000 unlicensed betting platforms
Brazilian authorities have implemented a comprehensive prohibition on prediction market platforms, effectively shutting down access to prominent services such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The declaration was made at a press briefing held at the Palácio do Planalto.
Finance Minister Darío Durigan revealed that ANATEL, Brazil’s telecommunications oversight body, is currently restricting access to 27 platforms associated with prediction markets. These services are being accused of breaching Law 14.790/2023, legislation that regulates fixed-odds wagering throughout Brazil.
According to Durigan, the primary objective is safeguarding citizens from potential financial losses. “It is necessary for us not to allow people to squander their savings on these sites,” he stated at the briefing.
Authorities in Brazil have designated prediction market services as unauthorized gambling enterprises. Despite these platforms positioning themselves as analytical instruments, officials contend that participants are effectively wagering on results for monetary gain.
From the administration’s perspective, this constitutes gambling activity.
Daniele Correa Cardoso, who serves as Secretary of Prizes and Betting within the Ministry of Finance, indicated the enforcement action extends well past prediction markets alone. Government departments have already curtailed access to over 39,000 unauthorized platforms conducting operations in Brazilian territory.
Officials have indicated no intention to develop a distinct regulatory system for prediction markets. The platforms will instead remain subject to current gambling prohibitions.
Updated Regulations for Derivative Instruments
The prohibition arrived alongside a fresh regulation from Brazil’s National Monetary Council. Effective May 4, derivative instruments connected to non-financial outcomes will face prohibition.
This encompasses contracts associated with athletic competitions, games involving chance, political campaigns, electoral processes, or entertainment-related events. The measure eliminates another avenue through which prediction market operations might function within the country.
The regulation specifically addresses the financial infrastructure underlying many such platforms. The majority of prediction market enterprises derive income from transactions processed via their services.
Prediction markets have experienced substantial expansion in recent years across global markets, including within and beyond the United States. Services like Kalshi and Polymarket have cultivated international user communities.
However, regulatory bodies across multiple nations have begun implementing restrictions. Argentina recently prohibited Polymarket from conducting operations within its jurisdiction.
Sector Organization Launched Shortly Before Prohibition
Immediately preceding the government’s declaration, ABPred—Brazil’s inaugural industry organization for prediction markets—was established. The organization’s purpose was bringing organizational structure and credibility to the sector.
During this same period, PreviLabel, a white-label solution provider for prediction platforms, commenced operations in the Brazilian marketplace. Both developments indicated the sector was positioning itself for sustained expansion domestically.
Those strategies now encounter significant obstacles. The dual impact of the platform prohibition combined with the updated derivative contract regulations effectively terminates prediction market operations throughout Brazil.
Brazilian officials have characterized this decision as a consumer safeguarding initiative. Finance and betting regulatory authorities are working in coordination to strengthen restrictions on financial products connected to non-financial results.
Brazilian authorities have restricted access to 27 prediction market platforms and prohibited derivative contracts associated with non-financial events beginning May 4.
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