Key Takeaways
- Banking analysts anticipate Macau gaming revenue will decline 10% year-over-year in June, with a 5% drop in July during the FIFA World Cup 2026
- The tournament spans June 11 through July 19, featuring an expanded format with 48 participating nations and 104 total matches
- Historical data from UEFA Euro 2024 showed Macau’s daily gaming revenue declined approximately 17% versus annual averages during major football events
- Current sector valuations sit at 7.3x EV/EBITDA, significantly below the historical long-term mean of 11.4x
- Analysts forecast 5.7% year-over-year revenue growth in the latter half of 2026, supported by major entertainment events and concerts
Major Football Tournament Expected to Temporarily Shift Gambling Spending Patterns
Citigroup analysts believe the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2026 will create temporary headwinds for Macau’s casino industry. According to the financial institution, major international football competitions historically redirect gambling expenditures from traditional casino gaming toward sports betting platforms.
The global tournament is scheduled from June 11 through July 19. This iteration represents the most expansive World Cup format in history, featuring 48 nations competing across 104 matches.
George Choi, an analyst with Citi, projects gaming revenue in Macau will contract by 10% year-over-year during June, followed by a 5% reduction in July. The bank anticipates conditions will normalize relatively quickly following the tournament’s conclusion.
The expanded tournament structure, significantly larger than previous World Cup editions, may amplify the impact on Macau’s casino sector beyond what was observed during earlier competitions, according to Citi’s analysis.
Historical Precedents Support Revenue Decline Forecast
Citi referenced the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament as a comparable recent case study. Throughout that event, Macau’s average daily gaming revenue was projected to reach approximately MOP514 million, equivalent to roughly $63.7 million daily. This figure represented a decline of about 17% compared to the 2024 daily mean of MOP620 million.
Analysts noted similar revenue patterns emerged during both the 2018 FIFA World Cup and the UEFA Euro 2016 tournament.
Choi emphasized the consistency of this trend, noting that each significant international football competition has temporarily diverted consumer spending away from Macau’s casino floors.
Given this year’s tournament features 104 matches, Citi analysts believe the revenue impact could exceed what was experienced in previous tournament cycles.
Sector Valuations Present Opportunity Despite Near-Term Headwinds
Notwithstanding the anticipated temporary slowdown, Citi maintained a constructive outlook on Macau gaming equities. The bank highlighted that current sector valuations remain below historical norms.
Macau gaming stocks are presently valued at 7.3 times forward EV/EBITDA. This compares to a long-term historical average of approximately 11.4 times.
Choi suggested this valuation discount creates potential upside if gaming trends strengthen following the tournament period.
The bank characterized the current market weakness as a potentially attractive entry point for investors with sufficient patience to weather the temporary revenue pressure.
Robust Entertainment Calendar Expected to Fuel Second-Half Rebound
Citi forecasts considerably stronger performance in the second half of 2026, projecting year-over-year GGR expansion of 5.7%. An extensive slate of non-gaming entertainment events is anticipated to revitalize tourism flows to Macau after the July tournament conclusion.
The scheduled concert lineup includes performances by K-pop groups Babymonster, TWS, and Enhypen, alongside Taiwanese recording artist Zhao Chuan.
Additionally, the NBA China Games will feature matchups between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.
According to Citi, this diverse entertainment programming should attract increased visitation to Macau and underpin gaming revenue growth throughout the remainder of 2026.
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