Key Takeaways
- SpaceX targets a June 2026 IPO with an ambitious $1.75 trillion valuation, potentially becoming history’s biggest public offering.
- Revenue expansion at SpaceX decelerated to 18% in 2025, a sharp decline from 51% and 89% growth in previous years.
- The aerospace giant reported $5 billion in losses during 2025, primarily from AI investments following its $250 billion xAI acquisition.
- Rocket Lab executed a flawless launch of eight JAXA satellites on April 22, 2026 — marking its eighth mission this year.
- Trading at a $49 billion valuation, RKLB carries a price-to-sales multiple of 74, indicating investors are betting on flawless execution.
While Wall Street obsesses over SpaceX’s impending public debut, Rocket Lab (RKLB) has been steadily expanding its operational track record. The company delivered eight satellites to orbit for Japan’s aerospace agency JAXA on April 22 — representing its second mission specifically for JAXA in recent months and its eighth orbital delivery of 2026.
Peter Beck, Rocket Lab’s CEO, described the Electron vehicle as “the preferred small launcher for national space agencies.” The satellite cargo featured ocean observation technology, an educational payload, a multispectral imaging demonstration unit, and an innovative origami-inspired antenna capable of expanding to 25 times its stowed configuration.
The mission proceeded without issues. The context surrounding this launch is significant.
SpaceX leadership recently engaged with investment bankers to structure a June public offering. The projected valuation stands at $1.75 trillion — positioning it as the world’s eighth-most valuable enterprise, surpassing both Tesla and Meta. Unusually, retail investors may receive 30% of available shares, dramatically exceeding the standard 5–10% allocation.
This unusually generous retail allocation has sparked concern among market observers. Some analysts fear it could trigger meme stock-style trading behavior, divorcing share price from underlying business performance.
Revenue Deceleration at SpaceX Raises Questions
According to private market analytics firm Sacra, SpaceX recorded 18% revenue expansion in 2025. While positive on the surface, this figure reveals troubling momentum when contrasted with 51% growth in 2024 and 89% growth in 2023. The slowdown pattern is unmistakable.
Then there’s the xAI transaction. SpaceX purchased Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence venture in February through a $250 billion stock exchange. The AI industry remains fiercely competitive, and the acquisition has already generated red ink. According to The Information, SpaceX recorded $5 billion in losses throughout 2025, predominantly from AI-related expenditures.
Anyone purchasing shares at a $1.75 trillion entry point is betting on substantial future expansion from an enterprise already experiencing deceleration and absorbing significant losses.
Rocket Lab’s Valuation Demands Scrutiny Too
Rocket Lab commands a $49 billion market capitalization with a price-to-sales ratio reaching 74. By conventional standards, this represents premium pricing. At such elevated multiples, the company needs near-perfect performance.
The organization’s upcoming milestone involves the Neutron rocket, a heavier-lift platform engineered to challenge SpaceX’s Falcon 9 more directly. Launch is anticipated later in 2026. Any schedule slippage could trigger sharp stock declines.
RKLB has fluctuated between $20.23 and $99.58 during the trailing 52-week period, highlighting the stock’s inherent volatility. The company maintains a gross margin of 31.66%.
Nevertheless, at $49 billion compared to $1.75 trillion, Rocket Lab presents greater proportional upside potential — assuming operational excellence continues.
The recent JAXA mission represented Rocket Lab’s second dedicated launch for the Japanese agency within months, following the RAISE-4 mission completed in December 2025.
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