Key Takeaways
- Investment bank Morgan Stanley forecasts continued challenges for Philippine casino operators through the end of 2026, driven by declining tourism from key Asian markets
- Gaming revenue from Philippine land-based casinos contracted 9.6% in 2025, falling to $2.97 billion
- Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen Choudhary questions whether MGM Osaka will meet its 2030 launch target
- The UAE’s Wynn Al Marjan Island project receives positive outlook despite potential delays beyond spring 2027
- Regional gaming revenues across Asia reached pre-pandemic levels in 2025, though recovery patterns vary significantly by market
The casino sector in the Philippines is heading for an extended period of difficulty, with industry weakness anticipated to persist until late 2026, according to projections from Morgan Stanley.
Praveen Choudhary, who serves as managing director and leads Asian gaming and lodging coverage at the investment bank, indicated that the Philippine market has experienced a significant erosion in its competitive position. Investment returns have deteriorated considerably from levels seen in previous years.
During his presentation on day one of G2E Asia 2026 held at the Venetian Macao, Choudhary identified declining tourism as the central challenge facing the industry. The first quarter of 2026 saw double-digit percentage drops in arrivals from both South Korea and China—two nations that represent the Philippines’ most important visitor source markets.
Although Philippine authorities implemented relaxed visa requirements for mainland Chinese travelers in an attempt to stimulate tourism, Choudhary noted these policy changes have proven insufficient to reverse the downward trend.
The rise of online gambling platforms combined with broader international economic factors have further pressured the country’s brick-and-mortar casino sector. This confluence of headwinds has created substantial obstacles for operators attempting to regain momentum.
Choudhary expressed pessimism about near-term prospects, stating he sees no compelling evidence suggesting an imminent recovery for Philippine gaming operations.
Government statistics support this bearish assessment. Land-based casino gross gaming revenue under Philippine licensing dropped 9.6% during 2025, declining to PHP 182.50 billion—approximately $2.97 billion in US currency.
Doubts Cast on Japanese Casino Development Schedule
Choudhary also weighed in on Japan’s casino initiatives, voicing skepticism about whether MGM Osaka—Japan’s inaugural legal casino resort—will successfully open by its targeted 2030 date.
The MGM Osaka project is being developed through MGM Osaka Corp, a collaborative venture involving MGM Resorts International, Orix Corp, and additional domestic partners. Choudhary suggested that major integrated resort developments in Japan will likely require more time than current projections indicate.
He referenced a March 10 national cabinet decree establishing a May through November 2027 bidding period for a second wave of integrated resort license applications. He cautioned against placing too much emphasis on these official timelines.
His remarks conveyed a generally conservative outlook regarding the speed at which Japan’s gaming industry expansion will materialize beyond existing planned projects.
Middle East Development Draws Optimistic Assessment
Choudhary adopted a more bullish stance when discussing prospects in the United Arab Emirates. Wynn Resorts is currently constructing Wynn Al Marjan Island, a development with an estimated price tag of $5.1 billion, in which Wynn Resorts maintains a 40% ownership interest.
He characterized the project as benefiting from monopoly market dynamics and a customer base oriented toward high-end luxury consumption. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that regional travel patterns and current US-Iran geopolitical tensions could influence future performance.
Wynn Resorts announced last month that the property’s anticipated spring 2027 debut may experience some postponement.
Regarding Asia’s broader gaming landscape, Choudhary observed that aggregate regional gaming revenues had recovered to pre-pandemic levels by 2025. In Macau specifically, casino operators are now prioritizing EBITDA margin enhancement.
The VIP gaming segment in Macau has staged a notable resurgence and is currently delivering stronger growth rates than the mass-market category. However, the recovery across Asian markets remains inconsistent, with certain jurisdictions continuing to face difficulties while others demonstrate strengthening performance.
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