Key Points
- Polymarket has initiated negotiations with CFTC officials to restore full US market access following a 2022 prohibition
- The platform’s limited US beta version restricts users to sports betting markets with significant waitlist backlogs
- With four vacant commissioner positions, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig holds decisive authority over the decision
- Federal prosecutors recently indicted a military service member for illegally profiting $400,000+ through classified information trades on the platform
- Competitor Kalshi has achieved a $22 billion market valuation while maintaining full regulatory compliance
The world’s premier prediction market platform, Polymarket, is mounting an effort to regain full operational status in the United States. Company representatives are currently engaged in substantive negotiations with Commodity Futures Trading Commission officials regarding the removal of restrictions that have excluded American participants from its primary platform for three years.
Bloomberg initially disclosed details of these negotiations. The discussions represent a significant shift after Polymarket spent years building an international user base while operating beyond US jurisdiction.
Shayne Coplan established Polymarket in June 2020. The service enables participants to purchase shares representing the probability of future events occurring, utilizing blockchain infrastructure constructed on the Polygon network.
Regulatory scrutiny arrived in late 2021 when CFTC officials launched an investigation. Authorities determined that Polymarket had functioned as an unregistered venue for event-based binary options trading from its inception. The January 2022 enforcement action resulted in a $1.4 million financial settlement and complete exclusion of US-based traders.
Current US Operations Remain Restricted
Polymarket attempted domestic market re-entry through a $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-registered derivatives exchange, completed in July 2025. The company introduced a beta version for American users toward the end of 2025.
This preliminary offering remains severely constrained. Access is limited exclusively to sports-related markets, and entry requires joining an extensive waitlist where hundreds of thousands continue waiting for approval.
The platform’s most trafficked categories—political forecasting and macroeconomic events—remain unavailable to US participants. Company officials have announced intentions to introduce climate, cryptocurrency, and electoral markets domestically but have not established definitive launch dates.
During this period, domestic competitor Kalshi has maintained continuous regulatory compliance since its founding. The company has established partnerships with major platforms including Robinhood and Coinbase, achieving a $22 billion valuation as of March.
Polymarket is pursuing a reported $15 billion valuation target. By October 2025, the platform was facilitating over $3 billion in monthly trading volume across its global operations.
Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, committed as much as $2 billion in capital and assigned Polymarket an $8 billion valuation during the same period.
Regulatory Decision Rests With Single Official
Modifying Polymarket’s regulatory status requires an official commission vote. However, with four of five commissioner seats presently unfilled, Chairman Michael Selig possesses unilateral decision-making authority.
Selig has demonstrated receptiveness to the concept. During April 16 testimony before the House Agriculture Committee, he stated the agency’s intention to repatriate offshore trading activity to US jurisdiction under appropriate regulatory frameworks.
Proposed solutions under consideration include integrating the offshore platform’s blockchain infrastructure with the domestic exchange or fully consolidating operations onto the US-licensed platform. Both approaches would necessitate substantial structural reorganization.
Opposition exists to the proposal. A coalition of House Democrats submitted correspondence to Selig last month demanding stricter enforcement measures against offshore prediction market operators. Their letter highlighted insider trading vulnerabilities and national security implications.
These concerns gained validation through recent criminal charges. Federal prosecutors indicted a US Army soldier for exploiting classified military intelligence to generate profits exceeding $400,000 through wagers on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. The service member circumvented access restrictions using VPN technology.
The prosecution demonstrated how readily US citizens can bypass the prohibition. It simultaneously intensified scrutiny regarding platform oversight mechanisms.
Polymarket has processed hundreds of millions in contracts related to military conflicts in Ukraine, Israel, and Iran. Under domestic regulatory frameworks, many such contracts would face severe restrictions. CFTC regulations explicitly prohibit US-registered exchanges from offering contracts involving warfare, terrorism, or political assassination.
The prediction market sector has attracted significant political interest. Donald Trump Jr. maintains advisory positions with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Trump Media and Technology Group has publicly disclosed plans to develop a competing platform.
The CFTC continues defending federal jurisdiction over prediction markets through litigation, while multiple state governments contend these products fall under state gambling regulatory authority.
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