Key Findings
- Research projects 17 million Americans will participate in prediction markets during 2026, with 43% less inclined to identify themselves as gamblers compared to the general population
- The crossover between sports betting enthusiasts and prediction market participants stands at approximately 40-50%, significantly lower than industry expectations
- Users of prediction markets interact with digital currencies at triple the rate of typical Americans and show strong preference for decentralized financial platforms
- Demographics reveal 90% male participation, representing the most pronounced gender imbalance the research organization has documented
- User density peaks in technology-focused cities including Nashville, Austin, and Fort Collins instead of established financial capitals
Research Reveals Unexpected Profile of Prediction Market Participants
Fresh behavioral research from the ELI Report is transforming understanding of prediction market demographics in America. Drawing from 100 million digital signals spanning 220 million user accounts, the analysis reveals participants resemble cryptocurrency advocates more than traditional wagering enthusiasts.
Ian Baer, the ELI Report’s creator, shared with Gambling Insider that his initial hypothesis anticipated discovering a community of “crypto bros and sports gamblers.” Reality proved markedly different.
The published findings project approximately 17 million Americans will engage with prediction markets throughout the current year. This substantial and expanding demographic is capturing interest from significant commercial entities.
The data indicates 40-50% of prediction market participants also engage in sports wagering. This intersection proves considerably narrower than market analysts previously believed.
Forty-three percent of those using prediction markets show decreased likelihood compared to typical Americans to self-identify as gamblers. Many express aversion to the chance elements inherent in conventional gambling activities.
Findings demonstrate prediction market participants interact with cryptocurrency at three times the national baseline. They display 2.8 times higher propensity for high-risk investment vehicles and 13 times greater interest in political affairs.
Baer characterized these participants as focused on political dynamics, economic indicators, and policy impact on financial markets. He portrayed them as analytical researchers rather than recreational bettors.
Technology Hubs, Not Financial Districts, Attract Prediction Market Users
Particularly noteworthy was the geographic distribution of users. Contrary to expectations of concentration in New York or similar financial epicenters, prediction market participants cluster primarily in technology-oriented metropolitan areas.
Metropolitan regions including Nashville, Austin, Fort Collins, and Louisville demonstrated peak user density. Baer noted this pattern aligns logically with the demographic’s tendency toward software development and technology sector employment.
He identified an “attitudinal split” distinguishing stock market investors from prediction market users. Traditional equity investors typically maintain confidence in established financial institutions, Baer explained. Prediction market participants gravitate toward decentralized finance structures and frequently avoid maintaining assets in conventional banking systems.
The analysis additionally discovered prediction market users demonstrate four times average likelihood of fantasy sports participation. Baer interpreted this as reflecting their preference for “probabilistic” analysis over pure chance.
Numerous participants also regard prediction market information as superior to traditional journalism or political polling. While they monitor mainstream media, they process those sources as supplementary data rather than authoritative conclusions.
Baer stated he places greater confidence in prediction market probabilities than political surveys, referencing consistent polling inaccuracies in recent presidential election cycles.
Gender composition presented another remarkable discovery. Prediction market demographics show 90% male participation, establishing the most extreme gender disparity any ELI Report study has encountered.
Major platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket have recently initiated influencer marketing campaigns targeting female user acquisition. Baer suggested whichever platform achieves success attracting women could secure dominant market position.
Sportsbook operators such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have started entering prediction market territory as the audience expands.
The ELI Report compiles information through methodology that anonymizes data sourced from organizations like GlobalWebIndex and YouGov. Artificial intelligence analyzes retail, media, and social patterns. Baer stressed the system operates on documented user behavior, not forecasting models or speculation.
Prediction market history traces to the Iowa Electronic Market established in 1988. PredictIt debuted in 2014 as a real-money platform connected to academic research, and the sector has experienced rapid growth subsequently.
As of May 2026, competing platforms pursue new user acquisition, with gender diversification and geographic reach emerging as critical competitive factors.
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