Key Highlights
- SoftBank shares climbed as much as 14% on Friday, following a nearly 20% spike on Thursday, for a combined two-day gain of approximately 32%
- Strong AI sentiment was triggered by Nvidia’s announcement of $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, marking an 85% year-over-year increase
- Arm Holdings, majority-owned by SoftBank, surged over 16% on Friday, lifting the perceived value of SoftBank’s portfolio
- Reports emerged that OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing in the US, potentially as early as Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the effort
- SoftBank disclosed record annual net profit of ¥5 trillion for the fiscal year ending March, including $45 billion in cumulative gains from its OpenAI stake
SoftBank Group shares reached 6,881 yen during Friday’s trading, climbing as high as 14% intraday and approaching the all-time peak of 6,923.8 yen. This followed Thursday’s dramatic rally of nearly 20%, which added approximately $35 billion to the company’s market capitalization in one day.
The combined 32% surge over two sessions has captured widespread market attention, with opinions divided on whether the gains represent genuine value appreciation or a speculative rush tied to artificial intelligence momentum.
Three key developments converged to trigger the rally. Nvidia unveiled quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, representing an 85% year-over-year jump, which strengthened conviction that AI infrastructure investment remains robust. The announcement reverberated across all companies connected to the AI supply chain.
SoftBank occupies a strategic position within this ecosystem. Its controlling stake in Arm Holdings combined with significant exposure to OpenAI makes it among the most accessible publicly-traded vehicles for AI investment.
Arm Holdings climbed more than 16% on Friday. Given SoftBank’s substantial ownership position in the semiconductor designer, any significant movement in Arm’s stock price directly influences investor assessments of SoftBank’s total asset value.
OpenAI Public Offering Speculation Intensifies
The third and potentially most significant catalyst emerged from reports that OpenAI is moving forward with a confidential IPO filing in the United States, with a potential submission as soon as Friday. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly managing the process.
Andrew Jackson from Ortus Advisors characterized the IPO possibility as the unifying element of the rally — a singular development that enables investors to consolidate Nvidia’s growth trajectory, Arm’s market value, and SoftBank’s private AI holdings into one coherent investment thesis.
SoftBank recently announced its best financial performance on record. Net profit for the fiscal year ending in March totalled ¥5 trillion, representing the highest ever posted by any Japanese corporation. Cumulative gains from its OpenAI position alone reached $45 billion.
CreditSights, operating under Fitch Ratings, sustained its “outperform” rating on SoftBank bonds, noting that the company’s fundamental asset value remained solid despite increased balance sheet leverage.
Bloomberg Intelligence observers pointed out that potential public offerings of OpenAI and SoftBank’s energy and data centre subsidiary SB Energy could help reduce SoftBank’s high-20% discount to net asset value while unlocking capital for additional investments.
Skepticism Remains Among Some Analysts
Not all market watchers are embracing the rally. Vey-Sern Ling from UBP warned that holding-company valuation discounts typically persist regardless of underlying asset performance. Parent company shareholders often fail to realize the complete value of subsidiary holdings.
SoftBank’s debt load, asset-backed financing structures, and dependence on private market valuations add further complexity to the valuation equation.
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar increased his SoftBank ADR price target from $13 to $20 while maintaining a Hold rating — suggesting that even analysts raising their projections are hesitant to recommend buying the stock at present levels.
The SoftBank ADR movement mirrors the activity observed in Tokyo, with shares advancing sharply in both markets throughout the two-day rally period.
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