Key Takeaways
- NagaCorp’s adjusted revenue is projected to expand by 3% to 8% annually through 2027, according to S&P Global Ratings.
- S&P maintains its B+/Stable rating for the casino operator, noting vulnerable business risk offset by intermediate financial risk.
- The company maintains exclusive gaming rights in Phnom Penh through 2045, with jurisdiction extending 200 kilometres from the capital.
- Gross gaming revenue is projected to jump 27% in 2025, hitting $692 million.
- The ambitious $3.5 billion Naga 3 development faces potential rescaling, with construction expenditure planned to restart in 2027.
S&P Global Ratings has outlined expectations for NagaCorp Ltd to achieve adjusted revenue expansion between 3% and 8% during 2026 and 2027. The casino operator, listed in Hong Kong, maintains gaming properties throughout Cambodia.
The credit rating agency affirmed its ‘B+/Stable/–’ assessment. S&P characterized NagaCorp as vulnerable regarding business risk while intermediate concerning financial risk. The agency clarified this analysis did not constitute a formal rating change.
Competitive Advantages and Operational Challenges
NagaCorp possesses exclusive gaming licensing rights in Phnom Penh through 2045. This monopoly extends across a 200-kilometre radius surrounding Cambodia’s capital city.
The operator also benefits from Cambodia’s favourable gaming tax structure. S&P noted this provides competitive advantages compared to casino operators in alternative jurisdictions.
However, S&P identified several concerns. These include insufficient transparency regarding funding strategies for upcoming projects and shareholder distributions.
The company demonstrates limited revenue diversification and concentrated geographic exposure. It confronts competitive pressure from gaming destinations in Malaysia and Macau.
Gross gaming revenue is anticipated to surge 27% during 2025, totalling $692 million. Mass-market gaming fuelled this expansion, with that segment climbing 23% to $485 million.
Non-gaming revenue represented under 5% of total revenue in 2025. S&P indicated this restricted revenue composition elevates the operator’s business risk profile within an emerging market context.
Reported revenue and profitability in 2025 remained substantially beneath pre-pandemic benchmarks. Revenue achieved 41% of 2019 figures, while profitability reached 60%.
S&P attributed this disparity to the elimination of the referral VIP segment, predominantly junket operators. Junkets represented approximately 70% of gross gaming revenue in 2019 and face unlikely prospects for revival.
China’s regulatory offensive against junket operations diminished that segment’s impact. S&P indicated this factor will continue constraining the company’s competitive positioning moving forward.
Financial Position and Development Plans
NagaCorp has constrained dividend distributions and capital expenditure since 2022. This strategy has maintained manageable debt levels while accumulating cash positions.
The operator retired a $70 million shareholder loan in May 2026. S&P projects debt to EBITDA ratios approximating 0.3 times throughout 2026 and 2027.
NagaCorp is reevaluating the scope of its Naga 3 development. A shareholder financing arrangement for the $3.5 billion project expired in December 2025.
S&P anticipates Naga 3 expenditure to recommence in 2027. Capital spending is projected at $170 million in 2026, escalating to approximately $380 million in 2027.
NagaCorp reinstated dividend payments in 2025 with a 30% payout ratio. S&P anticipates this ratio will progressively approach the company’s historical benchmark of 60%.
Annual shareholder distributions are forecast between $100 million and $120 million. S&P cautioned that accelerated Naga 3 spending coupled with substantial shareholder distributions could negatively impact the credit rating.
The agency additionally noted NagaCorp’s limited relationships with international financial institutions. It suggested the operator may face difficulties managing significant disruptions without external refinancing options.
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