Key Highlights
- Licensed gambling market share in Sweden declined to 84% during 2025, continuing a downward trend from 85% in 2024 and 86% in 2023
- Self-excluded users registered with Spelpaus.se are increasingly accessing unlicensed gambling platforms
- Regulatory authorities identified more than 2,100 unlicensed gambling domains by April 2026
- Independent analysis by operator ATG estimates the actual channelization figure could be closer to 73%
- Spelinspektionen faces leadership transition with Peter Knutsson assuming the Director General role in August 2026
According to newly released data from Spelinspektionen, Sweden’s gambling regulator, licensed operators captured 84% of the country’s online gambling activity throughout 2025. This represents a continued erosion from the 85% recorded in 2024 and 86% documented in 2023.
The regulatory authority employed a dual-methodology approach to calculate this metric: conducting player surveys focused on their most recent gambling activities, and analyzing web traffic patterns between licensed Swedish platforms and unauthorized international sites.
Acting Director General Johan Röhr characterized the findings as indicative of a “relatively stable market,” noting that the overwhelming majority of gambling transactions continue to occur through properly licensed channels.
Drivers Behind the Offshore Migration
Survey responses revealed multiple factors motivating Swedish players to engage with unlicensed gambling platforms.
The primary catalyst identified was Sweden’s Spelpaus.se national self-exclusion system. When individuals register for this program, they become automatically barred from all Swedish-licensed operators, inadvertently pushing some users toward offshore alternatives that fall outside the exclusion framework.
Additional motivations included more attractive promotional offers, the perception of superior payout rates, and availability of gaming products not permitted within Sweden’s regulated marketplace.
Web traffic analytics corroborated these survey findings, revealing substantial visitor volumes to unlicensed casino and sports betting platforms. The regulator’s monitoring efforts had catalogued over 2,100 unlicensed gambling websites by April 2026.
Debate Over Measurement Accuracy
The officially reported 84% channelization rate has sparked controversy within the industry.
Licensed operators and industry associations have raised concerns about the regulator’s calculation methods. ATG, one of Sweden’s prominent gambling operators, released independent research suggesting the true channelization rate may have dropped to approximately 73% by late 2025.
Spelinspektionen has acknowledged inherent limitations in its measurement approach. Players frequently cannot distinguish between licensed and unlicensed platforms, and mobile application-based gambling presents particular challenges for traffic-based analysis.
Channelization has served as a fundamental policy objective since Sweden restructured its gambling framework in 2019, when estimates suggested less than half of all gambling occurred through licensed platforms. While initial improvements were substantial, recent years demonstrate the challenge of maintaining high compliance levels.
Annual channelization measurement and reporting constitutes a statutory requirement for Spelinspektionen under its government mandate.
Government officials continue exploring strategies to curtail unlicensed gambling activity. A specially appointed government investigator recommended enhanced enforcement mechanisms last September. More recently in 2026, Spelinspektionen officially referred multiple unlicensed online gambling operations to Swedish law enforcement authorities.
The regulatory agency is currently navigating a leadership transition period. Röhr has served in an interim capacity since November 2025, following the departure of former director Camilla Rosenberg. Peter Knutsson is scheduled to assume the permanent Director General position in August 2026.
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