Key Findings
- 44% of U.S. adults believe election betting should be prohibited, compared to just 30% supporting legalization
- Sports-focused prediction markets enjoy the highest approval rating at 53%
- Terrorism and war-related contracts generate the most opposition, with 64% rejecting terrorism betting
- Trading volume on 2028 presidential race markets has surpassed $700 million across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms
- Federal legislators have proposed more than 25 prediction market bills in 2026 alone
The American public remains deeply skeptical of political prediction markets, according to fresh polling data, even as the sector experiences explosive growth and industry leaders eye massive expansion.
The POLITICO/Public First survey reveals that 44% of Americans want election outcome betting prohibited by law. In contrast, only 30% support its legalization.
Sports-related contracts tell a completely different story. Approximately 53% of those surveyed endorsed the legality of sports prediction markets, positioning them as the most publicly accepted form of event-based betting.
Weather forecasting markets and entertainment award contracts also garnered significant support, with roughly 46% backing weather-based platforms. However, public sentiment shifts dramatically when politics becomes involved.
Presidential pardon markets encountered resistance nearly identical to election betting. Forty-three percent called for their prohibition, while merely 25% supported their legal status.
Contracts centered on warfare and terrorism provoked the fiercest backlash. Fifty-seven percent rejected war outcome betting outright. An even larger 64% demanded terrorism-related markets remain illegal.
Broadly speaking, approximately 29% of American adults view prediction markets’ rising prominence as negative. Just 19% expressed positive sentiment. More than half indicated they would never participate in prediction market wagering.
Sector Eyes Massive Political Market Expansion
Regardless of public reservations, industry players are aggressively pursuing political market opportunities. Trading activity on 2028 presidential election contracts has already exceeded $700 million between Kalshi and Polymarket combined.
The 2024 U.S. presidential contest drove over $3.6 billion in transaction volume on Polymarket’s global platform, establishing it as the highest-volume prediction market event in history.
Bloomberg Intelligence researchers identified politics, elections, and policy-related contracts as the sector’s “most significant growth area.” Their models suggest political markets could comprise 27% of overall trading activity by 2030, climbing from approximately 10% in early 2025.
These same analysts forecast political prediction markets generating around $266 billion in yearly trading volume by the end of the decade.
Regulatory Pressure Intensifies
Elected officials are taking notice. Over 25 pieces of prediction market legislation have been filed at the federal level throughout this year.
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act seeks to prohibit contracts related to sports and electoral competitions. The Stop Trading on Predictions and Corrupt Bets Act aims to ban contracts involving elections, governmental decisions, armed conflicts, and athletic competitions.
Additional proposed legislation would completely bar Congressional members, judges, and campaign personnel from any prediction market participation.
States are moving independently as well. Minnesota broke new ground earlier this year by becoming the first state to impose a complete prediction market ban. Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC have each mounted legal challenges contesting the legislation.
Tennessee adopted an alternative strategy, establishing criminal consequences for insider trading and market manipulation within prediction market platforms.
The polling data suggests widespread public anxiety mirrors the concerns legislators are encountering. While sports markets enjoy broad acceptance, political betting markets decidedly do not.
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