TLDR
- Company elevated 2026 revenue forecast to €43–€45 billion from prior €36–€40 billion range issued in April
- Second-quarter revenue reached €9.3 billion with gross profit margin of 54%, exceeding company targets
- Earnings per share printed at $8.68 per ADR, beating analyst consensus of $7.92 by approximately 9.6%
- Firm intends to boost Low-NA EUV production capacity 30% in 2027 with potential for additional 30% expansion in 2028
- Analyst community maintains unanimous Strong Buy rating with mean price objective at $2,421, suggesting roughly 38.5% potential appreciation
On July 15, ASML unveiled second-quarter financial performance that exceeded internal projections, subsequently boosting its 2026 annual forecast for the second consecutive time.
Total revenue climbed to €9.326 billion, representing a 21.2% year-over-year increase from €7.692 billion. The figure surpassed both the company’s guided range of €8.4–€9.0 billion and the Street consensus estimate of €8.80 billion.
Bottom-line profit totaled €2.918 billion. In U.S. markets, earnings per American Depositary Receipt reached $8.68, approximately 9.6% higher than the $7.92 projection. Shares have climbed about 69% since January and roughly 145% over the trailing twelve months, currently changing hands near $1,748.
The most notable outperformance originated from Installed Base Management operations — aftermarket service and equipment upgrades for systems operating in customer fabrication facilities. This segment generated €2.762 billion, exceeding guidance by nearly €300 million. The favorable service revenue composition also lifted gross profitability to 54%, topping the 51%–52% projected band.
Systems revenue totaled €6.6 billion, with €3.8 billion derived from EUV platforms and €2.8 billion from legacy lithography tools. Logic applications represented 51% of the product mix while Memory accounted for 49%. ASML additionally recognized revenue from a single High-NA EUV system shipment during the period.
Outlook Gets a Major Upgrade
The company increased its full-year 2026 revenue projection to €43–€45 billion with gross margin expectations of 54%–56%. This represents a significant increase from the earlier €36–€40 billion forecast and 51%–53% margin range. The midpoint suggests approximately 35% expansion versus the prior year’s €32.7 billion in total sales.
Third-quarter guidance calls for €11–€12 billion in revenue and a 55%–57% gross margin band. Relative to the just-reported €9.3 billion, the midpoint indicates sequential top-line acceleration exceeding 20%.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet noted that order momentum remained “extremely strong” through the first six months, with fabrication partners accelerating expansion plans fueled by artificial intelligence-driven demand for cutting-edge logic processors and memory components.
Capacity Expansion Is the Real Story
ASML intends to increase Low-NA EUV production output from approximately 65 units in 2026 to a range of 78–80 units in 2027 — representing a 30% boost. The expanded manufacturing footprint is nearly fully reserved by existing customer commitments. Demand visibility for 2028 is strengthening, prompting management to evaluate an additional 30% capacity increment.
Deep ultraviolet immersion lithography capacity, presently running at roughly 130 systems annually, is being prepared for comparable expansions across 2027 and potentially 2028.
Within Memory markets specifically, the company now anticipates net system sales will climb more than 75% this calendar year as DRAM manufacturers invest in high-bandwidth memory architectures and next-generation DDR infrastructure.
Intel’s deployment of High-NA EUV technology on select 18A Panther Lake chip layers signals ASML’s newest platform entering volume production.
Shares currently command a valuation of approximately 40 times this year’s consensus earnings estimate of $43.34, which itself reflects roughly 49% profit growth from 2025 levels. The Street’s average twelve-month price target stands at $2,421.36, supported by eight unanimous Buy recommendations with zero Hold or Sell opinions.
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