Key Takeaways
- BTC surged beyond $79,000 following US core annual inflation data reaching its lowest point in 66 months at 2.4%
- Core CPI registered 0.3% monthly growth, exceeding the anticipated 0.2%, driving Federal Reserve rate increase probability to 85%
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $13.29 million in capital withdrawals on September 11, continuing a four-session outflow trend
- Ether ETFs attracted $216 million in fresh capital, with BlackRock’s ETHA capturing $149 million
- Technical analysis suggests a sustained break above $80,000 may trigger moves toward $82,000 and $84,000
BTC rebounded above the $79,000 threshold on September 11 following the release of US Consumer Price Index figures that aligned closely with market forecasts. The cryptocurrency had briefly retreated to $76,000 before purchasing interest returned.
The flagship digital asset was trading at $79,387.86, representing a 2.89% increase across the previous 24-hour period. The wider cryptocurrency ecosystem advanced 2.36%, elevating total market capitalization to $2.69 trillion.
Year-over-year core CPI decelerated to 2.4%, marking its most subdued reading in 66 months. This metric, which strips out volatile food and energy components, is considered a more reliable gauge of fundamental inflationary pressures.
Market analyst Crypto Patel had previewed the data release on X, suggesting that a monthly core CPI print beneath 0.2% could diminish Federal Reserve tightening expectations and provide tailwinds for Bitcoin. However, the actual 0.3% reading introduced complexity into this narrative.
Overall CPI remained steady at 3.4% annually. Energy costs played a significant role, with gasoline prices climbing 3.9% throughout August and representing more than one-third of the monthly gain. The comprehensive energy index advanced 2.1% during the month, connected to petroleum price increases amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions.
Federal Reserve Tightening Expectations Rise
While the annual figure showed cooling, the monthly core CPI advance of 0.3% exceeded the 0.2% market consensus. This development elevated implied probability of a Fed rate increase at the September 16 policy meeting to 85%, climbing from 60% the previous week, based on CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
The monthly acceleration was attributed to persistent supercore services inflation, which excludes both energy and shelter components. Fed governor Christopher Waller had previously indicated he would favor maintaining current rates if inflation demonstrated “some signs of disinflation.”
US 30-year Treasury yields surged to their highest marks since June 2004 before moderating to 5.309%. Trading firm QCP Capital cautioned that elevated yields create resistance for Bitcoin, characterizing the current landscape as “the worst mix for Bitcoin” — a competitive 5% risk-free return without corresponding growth momentum.
Investment Fund Activity Shows Divergence
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds registered $13.29 million in net capital withdrawals on September 11, representing the fourth straight session of outflows, per SoSoValue tracking data. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT stood as the sole exception with $3.76 million in fresh inflows.
Market analyst Ted Pillows observed on X that the daily price advance was not supported by robust spot market demand, and that increasing rate hike expectations create additional headwinds. He suggested that a convincing weekly settlement above $80,000 accompanied by substantial ETF inflows could propel BTC toward $85,000, though he indicated the present configuration suggests greater likelihood of a pullback.
Ethereum ETFs presented a contrasting picture, attracting $216 million in net capital. BlackRock’s ETHA dominated with $149 million. Ether itself surged more than 8% during the session, touching $2,640 for the first time in seven months.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s MACD indicator displayed a bullish crossover with the histogram registering positive at 13.86, although both MACD lines remain beneath the zero threshold. The RSI measured 54.98, positioning BTC within neutral range.
Bitcoin ETF capital withdrawals reached $13.29 million on September 11, prolonging a four-session decline ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 policy announcement.
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