Key Takeaways
- BTC fell beneath $84,000, hovering around $83,200 in Thursday’s Asian trading session.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.13% intraday, marking its highest point since 2007.
- FedWatch data from CME indicates a 75.3% probability of a rate increase in October.
- Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin maintains a 7.35% gain for September.
- Technical analysts identify $81K-$82K as critical support following rejection near $87K.
Bitcoin’s price slipped beneath the $84,000 threshold on Thursday, declining to approximately $83,200 as Asian markets opened. The decline coincided with US Treasury yields climbing to their most elevated levels in nearly two decades.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ended Wednesday’s session at 5.11%, marking an increase from the previous day’s 4.96%. Intraday trading saw the yield peak at 5.13%. Robust economic data from the United States combined with climbing crude oil prices fueled the upward movement.
BTC experienced a 2.4% decline, settling at $83,687.7 as of 09:16 ET. The broader cryptocurrency market mirrored this downturn. Ethereum, Cardano, XRP, and Dogecoin each registered negative price action throughout the trading day.
BREAKING: The US 30Y Note Yield rises to 5.44%, its highest level since June 2004.
We are nearing a +500 basis point gain from the 2020 low.
Where is the US Treasury? pic.twitter.com/nnoApVuyHS
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 24, 2026
Elevated Treasury yields provide investors with enhanced returns on government-backed securities. This dynamic often diverts capital away from higher-risk investments such as Bitcoin.
Federal Reserve Tightening Expectations Surge
According to Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, robust US economic activity combined with elevated energy costs have intensified speculation regarding additional Federal Reserve monetary tightening. He observed that market pricing now reflects a 70% likelihood of an October rate increase, up sharply from 55% just one day earlier.
The FedWatch tool from CME Group indicates even steeper odds, placing the probability at 75.3% for an increase to the 4.00-4.25% range. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 28.
Kooijman emphasized that employment statistics will play a crucial role in upcoming weeks. Robust employment figures could drive yields and the dollar higher. Conversely, disappointing data might lead traders to recalibrate their rate hike expectations.
The US Treasury Department introduced additional market pressure on Wednesday. Officials announced a $6 billion repurchase program targeting bonds with 20 to 30 years remaining until maturity. This initiative aims to enhance liquidity within the long-duration debt market.
Oil prices climbed during overnight trading. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered remarks at the United Nations that included criticism of the United States and President Trump. This development heightened concerns that anticipated oil supply negotiations between Washington and Tehran may face obstacles.
Japanese 10-year government bond yields reached a three-decade high on Thursday. Bond yields across developed economies advanced on expectations of continued monetary tightening.
Technical Analysis Points to Key Support Zones
James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com, noted that Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience despite rising interest rates and dollar strength. He identified $82,833 as the next significant level meriting attention should the price decline persist.
Cryptocurrency analyst BATMAN, active on X as @CryptosBatman, published a technical chart analysis of Bitcoin’s recent price movement. He observed that the rejection occurring near $87,000 aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, a technical indicator frequently employed by traders to identify potential reversal points in price rallies. He suggested profit-taking activity intensified around this zone. His analysis highlighted $81,000-$82,000 as the nearest support region should selling pressure continue.
Here’s what $BTC looks like up close.
The rejection we saw at $87K is exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target.
Traders are taking profits around that area.
The closest support level is the previous resistance, $81K-$82K. https://t.co/id4xYIQ5gU pic.twitter.com/NdRY98qTTE
— BATMAN ⚡ (@CryptosBatman) September 24, 2026
Market participants frequently reference September as “Red September” and October as “Uptober” based on historical price patterns. Bitcoin registered losses during five consecutive Septembers spanning 2017 through 2021. However, the cryptocurrency has concluded September with positive returns annually since 2022.
Bitcoin currently shows a 7.35% gain for the month. Historical data indicates October has delivered an average return of 19.92%, representing the second-strongest month annually. However, last year disrupted this trend, with Bitcoin declining 3.69% during October.
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