Key Takeaways
- Federal aviation regulators have authorized Boeing to manufacture 47 737 MAX aircraft monthly, an increase from the previous 42-unit cap, with ambitions to exceed 50 and reach 60
- Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg indicated China’s 200-aircraft purchase represents only an opening installment, signaling additional orders ahead
- The aerospace manufacturer shipped 600 aircraft in 2025, a significant jump from 348 units in 2024, though still trailing the 800+ deliveries achieved in 2018
- The defense segment maintains unprecedented backlog levels, despite failing to generate operating profits since 2021
- Wall Street assigns BA a “Moderate Buy” rating with consensus price projection of $259.80; shares began Thursday trading at $224.36
Shares of Boeing (BA) started Thursday’s session at $224.36, building on Wednesday’s 2.5% advance following remarks from CEO Kelly Ortberg at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference, where he detailed manufacturing momentum, Chinese aircraft orders, and the company’s pathway toward sustained profitability.
The most significant development from Wednesday involved the Federal Aviation Administration authorizing Boeing to manufacture 47 737 MAX aircraft per month. This represents an uptick from the 42-unit threshold, which had already been elevated from the 38-aircraft monthly ceiling implemented following a door plug failure on a 737 MAX 9 in January 2024.
The aerospace giant intends to escalate production above 50 units monthly in upcoming months, with long-term aspirations exceeding 60 aircraft. These production metrics currently hold greater significance for the investment thesis than virtually any other factor.
Throughout 2025, Boeing completed deliveries of 600 aircraft — representing substantial progress compared to merely 348 units in 2024. However, the corporation’s 2018 benchmark exceeded 800 deliveries. Industry analysts anticipate Boeing will surpass that historical figure by 2028, projecting approximately 860 deliveries.
The calculation is straightforward: increased aircraft output translates to enhanced revenue generation and improved free cash flow. Boeing has consumed approximately $38 billion in cash reserves spanning 2019 through 2025, following the generation of roughly $59 billion in free cash flow during the preceding seven years. The financial deficit remains substantial, and production acceleration represents the primary solution.
Chinese Orders: Additional Commitments Expected
Regarding China, Ortberg worked to temper investor expectations. Beijing recently finalized commitments for 200 aircraft, which disappointed some investors anticipating orders approaching 500 units. Ortberg characterized it as an “initial tranche” and indicated subsequent orders would materialize.
This positioning provided some reassurance, though market reaction remained muted. Boeing’s commercial order book already extends well into the next decade, positioning China as an upside catalyst rather than an immediate operational requirement.
Regulatory authorities also indicated expectations for 737 MAX 7 certification this summer and MAX 10 approval before year-end. Both certifications would expand available delivery configurations. The 777X and extended MAX 10 variants are projected to commence deliveries in 2027.
Defense Operations: Margin Pressure Persists Despite Improvement Trajectory
The defense segment continues generating operational headwinds. Boeing’s defense operations recorded approximately $130 million in losses during 2025, following a $5.4 billion deficit in 2024. The division hasn’t achieved operating profitability since 2021.
Ortberg stated Boeing plans to transition away from fixed-price contract structures, which have consistently produced financial losses. The defense backlog has reached unprecedented levels, with management establishing objectives for “high-single-digit” profit margin achievement.
Recent contract losses involving NASA projects and Italy-related programs, coupled with intensified competition from SpaceX, underscore that the defense recovery trajectory won’t follow a linear path.
From an institutional ownership perspective, hedge funds and major investment entities control 64.82% of Boeing shares. Director Bradley Tilden acquired 1,370 shares at $218.50 on May 20th, while Director Mortimer Buckley purchased 2,230 shares at $224.20 during March.
The consensus analyst price objective stands at $259.80, accompanied by a “Moderate Buy” rating. For Q1 2026, Boeing reported a per-share loss of $0.20, surpassing projections of -$0.68, on revenues of $22.22 billion — reflecting 14% year-over-year growth.
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