Key Takeaways
- Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Circle with a $140 price target, suggesting approximately 59% potential upside from the $87.98 closing price
- USDC circulation expanded by $1.7 billion within a week following roughly six months of stagnant growth
- Analysts believe Circle’s expansion trajectory is independent of whether the CLARITY Act becomes law in September
- Stablecoin transaction volumes, when adjusted for noise, are tracking at a $17 trillion annual rate as of July 2026
- Circle’s Agent Stack platform now powers over 900 commercial services, with USDC representing 99.3% of x402 agent payment settlement volume
Investment firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with a $140 price objective, maintaining its bullish stance despite lingering questions surrounding the CLARITY Act’s legislative fate. This valuation represents roughly 59% potential appreciation from Circle’s latest closing price of $87.98. During current trading sessions, CRCL shares were changing hands at $89.20, reflecting approximately 1.4% gains.
The research memorandum, released on August 24 and authored by analyst Gautam Chhugani, argues that Circle’s business momentum isn’t dependent on whether lawmakers approve the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation scheduled for a September vote.
The company delivered second-quarter revenues totaling $701 million, representing a 7% increase compared to the prior year period, albeit marginally below Wall Street consensus estimates. Profitability reached $48 million with earnings per share of $0.18, surpassing analyst projections.
USDC Circulation Experiences Renewed Expansion
Following approximately six months of horizontal price action, USDC’s total supply experienced a significant increase of roughly $1.7 billion within a seven-day period. Bernstein interprets this surge as evidence that market adoption is regaining momentum.
The research firm calculates that USDC accounts for approximately 80% of decentralized exchange trading and DeFi transaction volumes. When filtering out automated trading and high-frequency activity, adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes reached approximately $11 trillion during 2025 and were operating at a $17 trillion annualized velocity through July 2026. This represents roughly 60% growth year-over-year.
Circle secured authorization from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency during July to launch Circle National Trust, a federally overseen national trust banking institution. This development may ultimately transition USDC reserve administration into a federally regulated framework.
Standard Chartered implemented direct USDC creation and redemption capabilities for its institutional customer base. A complementary Fireblocks integration enables institutional players to oversee USDC holdings and channel payments into domestic fiat currencies via Circle’s Payments Network, which achieved $14.7 billion in annualized transaction throughput at the conclusion of Q2.
Machine-to-Machine Payments Unlock New Revenue Streams
Bernstein highlighted autonomous agent payments as an emerging component of USDC’s value proposition. Circle introduced Agent Stack during May, providing software agents with infrastructure to maintain assets and execute programmable transactions.
By the second quarter, more than 900 commercial services had integrated Agent Stack, with USDC capturing 99.3% of x402 agent payment settlement activity. Independent research from Keyrock documented AI agents processing $73 million across 176 million transactions over a twelve-month span, with USDC facilitating 98.6% of those payment flows.
Regarding regulatory developments, Bernstein stated that a defeated CLARITY Act vote on September 15 would probably trigger the SEC and CFTC to issue regulatory guidance instead of creating roadblocks for Circle’s operations.
On the competitive landscape, Mizuho downgraded Circle to Underperform during July with a $50 price objective, expressing concerns about profit margin compression from Open USD’s collaborative framework. Circle President Heath Tarbert responded by emphasizing USDC’s superior liquidity position and established ecosystem integrations.
Circle’s partnership momentum continues accelerating. Its collaboration with Japan’s JCB explores potential USDC applications in corporate treasury management and merchant payment systems. Strategic relationships with Kakao and Toss are investigating stablecoin deployment opportunities in South Korea. USDC additionally joined BNY’s Digital Asset Custody infrastructure during June.
Bernstein’s prior price objective for Circle stood at $190.
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