Key Takeaways
- Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn has reduced the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% down to 50%
- Despite Senate Banking Committee approval on May 14 with a 15-9 vote, no floor debate has been scheduled
- Available Senate legislative days are rapidly diminishing ahead of the August recess scheduled for late July
- Democratic senators continue to demand ethics-related provisions that have yet to be addressed
- Without a clear schedule emerging by early July, passage timing may shift into September or beyond
The CLARITY Act, a legislative proposal aimed at establishing regulatory framework for cryptocurrency markets, secured bipartisan approval from the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote. However, despite this advancement, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn has revised his assessment, lowering the probability of enactment in 2026 to 50% from a previous estimate of 60%.
Currently positioned at entry 423 on the Senate’s legislative calendar, the bill awaits floor debate scheduling with no confirmed date.
The central challenge facing the legislation is the scarcity of available time. With the Senate’s August recess approaching at the end of July, the number of productive legislative weeks remaining is extremely limited.
Competing Priorities Consuming Senate Calendar
Recent Senate activity has been dominated by contentious issues that have consumed valuable floor time. An entire week was absorbed by debates surrounding an anti-weaponization fund. Additionally, the chamber encountered difficulties advancing the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, with a procedural motion failing by a 47-52 margin.
Section 702’s authorization expires on June 12, meaning substantial floor time in the upcoming week must be allocated to addressing this surveillance authority rather than cryptocurrency regulation.
While each individual delay appears minor, their cumulative effect significantly narrows the already tight window available for the CLARITY Act to advance.
For the legislation to move forward, Senate Majority Leader John Thune must allocate floor time during July. The bill requires floor debate, an amendment consideration process, and reconciliation with corresponding Agriculture Committee text before any potential House consideration.
This represents a substantial procedural checklist with minimal calendar availability to accommodate all necessary steps.
Democratic Support Contingent on Unresolved Conditions
Beyond scheduling constraints, a critical substantive obstacle persists. Senate Democrats, with Ruben Gallego serving as a prominent voice, have established ethics-related provisions as a mandatory condition for their support. These provisions remain unaddressed following the committee’s decision to defer the matter to floor consideration.
The legislation requires a minimum of 60 votes to advance. Galaxy Research anticipates two Republican opposition votes from Josh Hawley and Rand Paul, both of whom opposed the GENIUS Act during last year’s voting.
This vote calculation provides Thune with little incentive to schedule floor consideration without confirmed Democratic support in place.
Factors That Could Improve the Legislation’s Prospects
Thorn indicated he would revise his probability estimate upward if Majority Leader Thune publicly commits to scheduling floor time in early to mid-July, and if the ethics and illicit finance concerns are demonstrably resolved with confirmation of a solid bloc of nine or more Democratic votes.
Additional positive momentum would come from news that the Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee versions have been consolidated into a unified legislative package.
Absent these developments within the next two to three weeks, Galaxy Research suggests the realistic timeline shifts to September. However, fall legislative action encounters midterm election complications, when available floor time becomes scarce and members prioritize campaign activities.
Presently, Galaxy Research continues to assess the CLARITY Act as more likely than not to secure passage in 2026, though the probability margin continues to narrow.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
