Key Highlights
- Brent crude surpassed $111 per barrel while WTI neared $108, continuing a three-day upward trend
- President Trump issued an urgent warning via Truth Social demanding Iran respond quickly or face severe consequences
- Reports indicate the US and Israel are advancing preparations for potential coordinated military action within days
- Iraqi crude shipments via the Strait of Hormuz plummeted to 10 million barrels in April from a typical 93 million monthly
- Weekend drone incident at UAE nuclear site heightens concerns over regional infrastructure vulnerability
Crude oil markets extended their rally into a third consecutive session Monday following President Donald Trump’s renewed ultimatum to Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude prices pushed beyond $111 per barrel after last week’s nearly 8% surge. West Texas Intermediate tracked toward $108 as geopolitical tensions continued to mount.
In a Sunday post on Truth Social, Trump declared: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
Military Action Reportedly Being Coordinated Between Washington and Tel Aviv
A report published by The Times of Israel indicates that American and Israeli defense officials are actively developing operational plans for potentially launching renewed joint strikes against Iranian targets within the coming week.
The President convened with his national security advisors at his Virginia golf property Saturday. Another high-level meeting is scheduled for Tuesday in the White House Situation Room, with attendees expected to include Vice President JD Vance, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior Israeli defense official indicated forces are being positioned for imminent operations. “The Americans understand that negotiations with Iran are going nowhere,” the source stated. “We’re preparing for days to weeks of fighting and waiting for Trump’s final decision.”
Zev Elkin, a member of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s security cabinet, acknowledged Israel has identified specific objectives. “We have targets that we want to hit,” he confirmed in an interview with Kan radio.
Hormuz Blockage Continues Strangling Global Crude Supply
Oil prices have surged more than 50% since coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran commenced in late February. The Strait of Hormuz closure has severely restricted crude flows from Persian Gulf exporters.
Iraqi petroleum exports through the critical waterway collapsed to merely 10 million barrels throughout April, a dramatic decline from the standard monthly volume of 93 million barrels.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley warned last week that markets face “a race against time,” cautioning that elements currently limiting further price increases could deteriorate rapidly should the strait remain impassable through June.
“The risk premium is likely to stay sticky,” observed Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “Markets have seen plenty of headlines around possible solutions, but no credible mechanism yet that fully removes the Hormuz supply risk.”
Diplomatic efforts facilitated by Pakistan with backing from China have reached an impasse. Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that Washington has offered “no tangible concessions” while demanding significant compromises it couldn’t secure during active hostilities.
According to Fars News in Iran, the US presented five specific demands to Tehran, including transferring 400kg of highly enriched uranium to American custody, restricting operations to a single Iranian nuclear installation, and forgoing release of frozen Iranian financial assets.
UAE Nuclear Facility Targeted in Weekend Drone Strike
An unmanned aerial vehicle struck an electrical generator located outside the Barakah nuclear complex in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday, igniting a fire. UAE authorities confirmed no casualties occurred and radiological safety measures remained intact.
The Trump administration additionally allowed a waiver permitting Russian crude sales to expire, compounding global supply constraints despite appeals from India to maintain the exemption.
US intelligence services are also examining a suspected Iranian cyber operation that reportedly manipulated fuel price displays at service stations across several American states, though official attribution has not yet been established.
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