Key Findings
- Cryptocurrency holders anticipated 22% yearly gains compared to only 7% projected by non-holders in 2021 research
- Presenting Bitcoin’s trailing 12-month performance to households increased desired cryptocurrency positions by approximately 2 percentage points
- Real cryptocurrency buying activity climbed about 2.5 percentage points following exposure to Bitcoin historical data
- Return expectations proved more predictive of crypto ownership than demographic factors including age, earnings, or sex
- Bitcoin appreciation appears to drive consumer spending on durable items such as electronics and home appliances
Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland demonstrates that exposing individuals to historical Bitcoin performance data significantly influences both their desired cryptocurrency exposure and subsequent purchasing decisions.
JUST IN: Fed study finds crypto investors swayed by returns, with beliefs diverging on risk; mention of Bitcoin’s past gains can lift both desired allocations and actual purchases. $BTC pic.twitter.com/CgQqKGMzPF
— Bpay News (@bpaynews) August 23, 2026
The research document, released on July 14, 2026, features work by Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. The analysis leveraged repeated household surveys encompassing as many as 25,000 American households each cycle.
Researchers conducted a controlled randomized trial during the second quarter of 2025. Survey participants received information regarding either Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index, GameStop stock, or inflation projections.
Participants who viewed Bitcoin’s preceding 12-month gain of 14.3% expanded their preferred cryptocurrency allocation by approximately 2 percentage points. This represented a 47% increase relative to the control cohort’s baseline desired allocation of 4.3%.
Tangible purchasing behavior shifted accordingly. Actual cryptocurrency acquisition increased by roughly 2.5 percentage points among households exposed to Bitcoin performance metrics.
Prior to the trial, approximately 11% of survey participants owned cryptocurrency. The research team determined the informational treatment elevated the probability of purchasing crypto by roughly 23%.
The impact was most pronounced among individuals who cited insufficient information as their primary barrier to crypto adoption. Conversely, participants who already viewed cryptocurrency unfavorably demonstrated minimal behavioral shifts.
Stark Divergence in Return Expectations Between Holders and Non-Holders
The analysis uncovered substantial disparities in return forecasts between cryptocurrency owners and non-participants.
Survey data from 2021 showed crypto holders who provided projections anticipated average returns of 22% over the subsequent year. Non-holders forecasted merely 7%.
Both cohorts exhibited considerable uncertainty. Approximately 87% of non-participants reported being unable to estimate expected returns. Among holders, 54% expressed similar uncertainty.
By 2025, projections moderated in both segments. Owners anticipated 13.8%, whereas non-owners forecasted 4.7%.
Expected returns proved more influential in determining ownership status than demographic variables such as age, income level, gender, or accumulated wealth. Every additional percentage point in anticipated returns correlated with a 0.8 percentage point elevation in cryptocurrency ownership probability.
This pattern distinguishes cryptocurrency from traditional equities and fixed-income securities, where demographic characteristics typically explain ownership variation more effectively than return expectations.
Price Appreciation and Potential Self-Reinforcing Dynamics
The study authors outlined a potential dynamic whereby robust historical performance elevates future expectations, stimulates purchasing activity, and attracts additional market participants.
“Strong returns draw fresh participants, driving prices higher,” the researchers noted. They characterized this as a theoretical bubble formation mechanism rather than a definitive forecast.
Cryptocurrency Appreciation and Consumer Expenditure Patterns
The study additionally examined whether Bitcoin price increases influenced household consumption behavior.
A doubling in Bitcoin’s valuation increased the probability that a fully crypto-invested household would purchase durable goods by approximately 1.4 percentage points. This translates to roughly a 7% rise in purchase likelihood. The impact was most evident for products including computing equipment and kitchen appliances.
Daily expenditure patterns showed minimal modification. Researchers proposed that cryptocurrency gains may function more similarly to windfall earnings than conventional wealth accumulation.
The paper observes that cryptocurrency price volatility may partially originate from divergent investor opinions and information discovery processes rather than solely underlying market fundamentals.
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