Key Takeaways
- Bank of America maintained its Buy recommendation on MELI stock with a $2,400 price objective
- The company’s credit card loan portfolio surged to $6.6 billion in Q1 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of more than 100% and now comprising 45% of total lending
- BofA forecasts the credit card division will incur a $443M EBIT loss in 2026, then turn profitable by 2028 and generate $1.5B in earnings by 2030
- Shares have fallen 34.5% year-to-date compared to a 24% rally in the S&P 500, yet 85% of Wall Street analysts maintain Buy ratings
- Scotiabank analyst Hector Maya holds the highest price target at $2,800 — representing 72% upside from current trading levels
As of June 9, 2026, MercadoLibre shares are changing hands near $1,622, reflecting a year-to-date decline of approximately 34.5% even as the broader S&P 500 index has advanced 24%.
Yet despite this substantial performance divergence, Wall Street sentiment remains decidedly optimistic. A commanding 85% of sell-side analysts tracking the stock maintain Buy recommendations, and remarkably, every single analyst’s price target sits above the current market price.
This week, Bank of America Securities reaffirmed its Buy stance while holding firm on its $2,400 price objective. Analyst Robert E. Ford Aguilar highlighted the company’s expanding credit card operations as a key catalyst for future value creation, despite creating near-term margin pressure.
MercadoLibre’s credit card lending portfolio experienced explosive year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, more than doubling to hit $6.6 billion. This segment now accounts for roughly 45% of the company’s entire loan portfolio.
Monthly active users for the credit card product jumped 68% during the same quarter, significantly outpacing the 29% growth in overall Mercado Pago monthly active users. By any standard, this represents exceptional expansion velocity.
However, BofA anticipates the credit card business will generate a $443 million EBIT loss throughout 2026. This represents a 1.1 percentage point headwind to overall consolidated margins. Credit card operations generally require 12 to 18 months post-launch to achieve net interest margin profitability due to initial provisioning requirements.
The bank’s forecast models suggest the division reaches profitability in 2028, subsequently delivering $1.5 billion in EBIT by 2030. This would contribute an additional 2.2 percentage points to consolidated margin compared to 2026 baseline levels.
Minimal Market Share Creates Significant Growth Runway
Notwithstanding the impressive credit card expansion, MercadoLibre commanded merely 3.4% of total industry credit card balances in Brazil and 2.5% in Mexico as of March 2026. The runway for continued growth remains extensive.
The platform has also introduced its credit card offering in Argentina, where it boasts 19.9 million daily active Pago app users — substantially higher than the 12.9 million in Brazil. BofA’s Aguilar emphasized that reduced customer acquisition expenses and superior brand recognition in that market should drive faster portfolio growth as Argentine inflation continues moderating.
Argentina’s historically depressed credit penetration rates, a byproduct of prolonged macroeconomic volatility, leave the market largely unexploited.
Expansion Metrics That Command Attention
Taking a broader perspective, MELI’s overall operations have delivered 31% annualized growth over the past ten years. Total credit users expanded from 10 million in 2022 to 41.9 million by Q1 2026. The aggregate credit portfolio grew from $2.8 billion to $14.6 billion during this timeframe.
E-commerce penetration across Latin America currently stands at only 14%, well below the 27% penetration in the United States and 32% in China. The total addressable market is valued at $5.5 trillion, compared to trailing twelve-month revenue of $31.8 billion.
Customers making purchases across at least three different categories increased 130% from 2022 through Q1 2026. Average quarterly transaction frequency climbed from 6.8 to 9 during the identical period.
The most bullish Wall Street price target comes from Scotiabank’s Hector Maya at $2,800 — representing 72% upside from present levels, although this actually reflects a reduction from his previous $3,500 target.
BofA employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation framework: the commerce segment at 0.6x 2027 gross merchandise value and the fintech division at 0.2x 2027 off-platform total payments value, yielding the $2,400 price target.
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