Key Takeaways
- Following exceptional third-quarter earnings, Micron jumped over 15% on June 24, reaching an all-time peak of $1,255 before retreating 6.7% the following session
- Analysts remain optimistic: Mizuho upgraded its price objective to $1,375 while maintaining an outperform rating, joined by several other firms raising targets
- Reports suggest Apple is pursuing government clearance to procure DRAM from China’s CXMT — analysts view this as industry-wide supply constraint rather than Micron-specific risk
- South Korean government unveiled long-term memory chip fabrication expansion plans; Mizuho characterizes the announcement as largely symbolic without firm capital allocations
- Fall HBM pricing discussions identified as critical upcoming catalyst, with potential price increases reaching 2.5x current 2026 rates for 2027 contracts
Micron Technology (MU) experienced a remarkable surge exceeding 15% on June 24 following exceptional third-quarter financial performance, touching a record peak of $1,255. However, the semiconductor giant relinquished a portion of those gains, finishing Friday’s session down 6.7% with trading volume reaching 86.4 million shares — approximately twice its three-month rolling average.
The company’s third-quarter earnings per share reached $25.11, surpassing analyst consensus projections of $20.98 by $4.13. Total revenue landed at $41.46 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $35.91 billion. This represents a remarkable 345.8% year-over-year revenue expansion.
Looking ahead, Micron established fourth-quarter 2026 guidance targeting $30.00–$32.00 in earnings per share, topping analyst forecasts.
Despite the recent decline, Mizuho TMT analyst Jordan Klein is encouraging investors to maintain their positions. The firm elevated its price objective from $1,150 to $1,375, suggesting approximately 13% potential appreciation from Friday’s closing price.
Numerous other investment houses subsequently announced upgraded targets. Susquehanna established a $2,000 objective, Needham increased to $1,650, Deutsche Bank adjusted to $1,550, Wedbush moved to $1,400, and Wolfe Research set $1,500. Among 39 analysts tracking the stock, 31 maintain Buy recommendations while five hold Strong Buy ratings.
Klein identified two recent news items that skeptical investors are highlighting this week. First, reports indicate Apple is pursuing U.S. regulatory approval to acquire DRAM from Chinese manufacturer CXMT, a company currently on the Commerce Department’s Entity List.
Klein’s perspective: this reflects broader industry supply constraints rather than Micron-specific challenges. The company has strategically reallocated production capacity toward hyperscaler HBM and LPDDR DRAM agreements, plus automotive and industrial applications. Any potential Apple supply shifts would disproportionately affect Samsung and SK Hynix.
Whether federal regulators will authorize such licensing remains uncertain. Klein additionally observes that China’s domestic CXMT consumption is substantial, and Beijing may resist redirecting domestic supply to international purchasers.
Korean Fabrication Announcement: Political Posturing Over Substance
The second bearish headline involves a formal declaration from SK Hynix, Samsung, and South Korea’s government regarding a multi-decade memory fabrication expansion encompassing approximately four additional facilities. Klein characterizes this as predominantly political theater, emphasizing the absence of concrete capital commitments anticipated for this year or next. Micron already has four new manufacturing facilities in its development pipeline.
Apple CEO Tim Cook characterized the memory supply shortage to the Wall Street Journal as a “once in a century flood,” stating he had never witnessed comparable conditions across four decades in the industry. Elon Musk amplified these comments on X, describing the capacity-demand imbalance as “insane.”
Fall Contract Negotiations Emerge as Critical Market Driver
A Monday Digitimes analysis projects that memory manufacturers could elevate HBM pricing — including next-generation HBM4 — to potentially 2.5 times current 2026 levels during upcoming annual supply negotiations covering 2027.
These industry-wide negotiations occur each autumn. Klein suggests that any September or October developments indicating robust HBM contract pricing could materially elevate Wall Street earnings projections for 2027.
Micron’s upcoming quarterly earnings announcement is scheduled for September 29, 2026 — coinciding precisely with the anticipated intensification of HBM contract discussions.
Consensus earnings per share estimates for fiscal fourth quarter 2026 stand at $25.72 on approximately $43.58 billion in revenue. Notably, all 25 analyst revisions published over the preceding 90 days have reflected upward adjustments.
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