Key Takeaways
- Novo Nordisk’s once-daily oral Wegovy tablet exceeded 3 million U.S. prescriptions within five months of market entry
- More than 80% of oral Wegovy prescriptions went to patients previously untreated with GLP-1 medications, signaling market expansion
- Eli Lilly’s competing oral treatment Foundayo entered the market in April but has recorded fewer U.S. prescriptions than Wegovy pill
- NVO shares traded at $42.96 on June 5, while analyst models suggest fair value near $74 per American Depositary Receipt
- TD Cowen increased its 2030 worldwide GLP-1 revenue forecast to $150 billion, citing oral formulation growth as a key driver
Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares were changing hands at $42.96 on June 5, representing approximately 37% below price levels discussed in an optimistic investment case from May 2025. However, several Wall Street analysts now suggest the market correction has overshot reasonable valuations.
The pill version of Wegovy has emerged as a standout performer. Management disclosed that prescriptions for the oral tablet surpassed the 3 million mark just five months following its U.S. commercial debut — representing quicker market adoption than most forecasters anticipated for a novel delivery format in an increasingly crowded therapeutic category.
The pharmaceutical giant recorded its first million prescriptions within 10 to 12 weeks post-launch, then witnessed an additional 2 million prescriptions over the subsequent 10-week period. This momentum shift captured leadership’s attention, who characterized it as confirmation the product is building meaningful market share despite intensifying competitive pressures.
CEO Mike Doustdar delivered these remarks at a research and development presentation on Sunday, acknowledging that Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral obesity medication Foundayo had commenced sales in April. He emphasized the prescription velocity “is acceleration” when evaluated against this heightened competitive environment.
Based on IQVIA prescription tracking data monitored by equity research teams, U.S. prescription volumes for Foundayo have remained behind the Wegovy tablet through recent reporting periods. Nevertheless, Eli Lilly maintains a substantially larger market capitalization and continues to command greater Wall Street favor by considerable margins.
Over 80% of Oral Wegovy Patients Are First-Time GLP-1 Users
Novo disclosed that over 80% of oral Wegovy prescriptions were written for individuals who had no prior history of GLP-1 drug utilization. This statistic carries significant strategic implications — it indicates the tablet formulation isn’t merely converting patients from injectable therapies, but rather recruiting individuals who previously went untreated for their obesity condition.
TD Cowen elevated its 2030 worldwide GLP-1 market projection to $150 billion from a prior $139 billion estimate, attributing part of the increase to expanding adoption of oral alternatives.
Novo’s forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.77, while its trailing P/E registers at 10.09, per Yahoo Finance data. One valuation framework employing a discounted cash flow methodology calculated intrinsic worth at roughly $74 per ADR — representing approximately 92% premium to current trading levels. That particular model incorporated cautious assumptions regarding revenue expansion trajectories and profitability margins.
2026 Expected as Transition Period Before Growth Resumes
The optimistic investment thesis surrounding NVO doesn’t dismiss current operational headwinds. Rather, it contends the market is embedding permanent impairment assumptions for what strategists believe represents a cyclical downturn.
Revenue projections point to roughly 9% contraction in 2026, pressured by softer Wegovy injection demand, unfavorable pricing dynamics, and disappointing clinical data from the CagriSema development program. These obstacles carry genuine consequences.
Yet the oral Wegovy commercialization, the broadening GLP-1 addressable market, and Novo’s entrenched franchise in diabetes therapeutics form the foundation of the growth resumption narrative extending into 2027 and subsequent years.
As of June 9, Novo validated the 3 million prescription achievement during its R&D presentation, reinforcing that the oral Wegovy market rollout continues progressing according to internal expectations.
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