Key Points
- Shares of SpaceX fell approximately 2.5% to $115.26 Friday following consecutive postponements of the Starship test launch
- HSBC launched coverage with a neutral Hold rating and $115 price target, diverging from Wall Street’s predominantly optimistic stance
- The company’s 13th Starship test mission has faced two consecutive delays ā initially due to engine complications, followed by adverse weather
- Bears betting against the stock have accumulated roughly $15.5 billion in unrealized gains following the June public offering
- The company’s inaugural quarterly earnings release is scheduled for August 4, with analysts focused on Starlink subscriber momentum
Shares of SpaceX tumbled 2.5% to $115.26 during Friday’s morning session, pressured by consecutive Starship launch postponements and an unexpected neutral rating from HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson, who established a $115 valuation target.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The shares have now retreated approximately 50% from their peak of $225.64 and sit 12% below the June initial public offering price of $135.
SpaceX’s 13th Starship test mission has encountered two consecutive scrubs. The initial July 17 launch window was aborted when multiple Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster encountered ignition failures. A second attempt scheduled for July 23 was cancelled due to meteorological conditions that compromised visibility of the vehicle’s thermal protection system.
SpaceX has subsequently swapped out several Raptor engines and conducted supplementary ground verification tests. Another launch window was set for Friday evening, with coverage available at spacex.com and on X.
For this mission, the booster’s primary goals include a successful liftoff, stage separation maneuver, boostback burn sequence, and landing burn at a designated offshore location in the Gulf of America. The upper stage aims to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites and validate an orbital engine restart capability before ocean touchdown in the Indian Ocean.
HSBC Stands Apart From Bullish Consensus
HSBC’s neutral stance represents a departure from consensus views. Entering Friday’s session, 28 out of 37 analysts covering the stock ā approximately 76% ā maintained Buy recommendations. The consensus price target hovers around $237 per share. For comparison, typical Buy-rating proportions for S&P 500 constituents range between 55% and 60%.
Cote-Colisson recognized SpaceX‘s achievements but advised investors to exercise “prudence.” He highlighted potential selling pressure as lockup restrictions expire for early investors following the June public debut.
The August 4 quarterly results represent the next critical catalyst. The analyst emphasized that SpaceX must demonstrate robust expansion in its Starlink operations to reinvigorate investor sentiment.
Bears Capitalize on Decline
Bearish traders have aggressively positioned themselves. An estimated $15.5 billion in mark-to-market gains have materialized since the public offering, with approximately 360 million SpaceX shares ā roughly 56% of the available float ā reportedly borrowed by short sellers.
Following two consecutive sessions with gains exceeding 19% immediately after the IPO, SpaceX shares have declined in 17 of the last 26 trading days. This includes a punishing seven-session slide that concluded Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s 6.7% retreat.
Alphabet revealed a substantial SpaceX investment this week, disclosing holdings valued at approximately $94.1 billion as of late June ā though the subsequent stock price depreciation has diminished the present market value of that position.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 operations maintain a more consistent cadence. The company successfully deployed 24 Starlink satellites from California on July 21, one day following an unusual final-second abort.
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