Key Highlights
- Analysts have elevated SpaceX’s 2027 revenue projection to $100 billion from a previous $70 billion estimate, fueled by accelerating AI sector expansion.
- The company’s AI division is anticipated to contribute $60 billion in 2027 revenue, a significant increase from the prior $38 billion forecast.
- Revised financial models position SPCX stock valuation between $140 and $200 per share, substantially higher than the initial $90 post-merger projection.
- Analysts forecast SpaceX’s AI-driven revenue could reach $530 billion by 2031, far exceeding earlier estimates around $150 billion.
- Finance expert Aswath Damodaran from NYU cautions that leasing computing infrastructure to companies like Google and Anthropic may constrain future value creation.
SpaceX stock (SPCX) experienced a 2.2% decline in premarket trading Monday, settling at $147.90, despite analysts significantly increasing their valuation targets for the aerospace giant.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Financial analysts have revised SpaceX’s 2027 revenue expectations upward to $100 billion, a notable jump from the $70 billion projection issued just several months earlier. Estimated core earnings for 2027 have similarly surged from $28 billion to $59 billion during this timeframe.
The catalyst behind these upgraded forecasts is SpaceX’s artificial intelligence operations. The AI segment is now anticipated to generate $60 billion in revenue by 2027, substantially higher than the July projection of $38 billion.
This rapid expansion has fundamentally altered the company’s long-term financial outlook. Earlier projections suggested SpaceX would consume $24 billion in cash through 2030. Current analyses now anticipate the company will achieve positive free cash flow instead.
Extending the timeline further, analysts project AI-related revenue could hit $530 billion by 2031. Initial forecasts for that year hovered around $150 billion.
Updated Financial Models Reflect New Reality
NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran previously assigned SpaceX a valuation of approximately $100 per share in June, incorporating 2036 AI revenue of $160 billion in his analysis. That projection now appears significantly understated.
Applying revised AI revenue assumptions of $500 billion by 2036, the stock’s fair value could approach $140. Should 2036 AI revenue reach $1 trillion, the price target escalates toward $200.
These calculations suggest that each $100 billion increment in annual AI revenue by 2036 translates to approximately $10 per share in present value.
At prevailing market prices, SPCX trades at roughly 34 times projected 2027 Ebitda. This compares with multiples near 25 times for companies like GE Aerospace and GE Vernova.
According to TipRanks, SPCX maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating, supported by 26 Buy recommendations, six Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at $231.68, suggesting potential upside exceeding 53% from current trading levels.
Expert Voices Concern Over Revenue Composition
Notwithstanding the enhanced financial projections, Damodaran remains cautious about updating his valuation framework. His primary concern centers on the source of AI revenue generation.
A substantial portion of SpaceX’s AI growth stems from leasing computational resources to external customers, including Google and Anthropic. Damodaran suggests this business model faces inherent constraints.
“That actually takes away from their AI story, since to win in that story, you have to be generating revenues from creating AI agents and collecting subscription or usage revenues,” he explained to Barron’s.
He drew an analogy to a manufacturer constructing an expansive facility for a high-demand product, only to rent the majority of that capacity to rival firms.
Starlink’s subscriber base has expanded dramatically from fewer than 6 million in June 2025 to surpass 12 million by June 2026. Falcon family launch operations increased from under 50 missions in 2021 to more than 150 in 2025.
SpaceX now commands 80% of global mass delivered to orbit, up from 45% in January 2021.
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