Key Takeaways
- DZ Bank launched coverage on SpaceX (SPCX) with a Sell recommendation and $100 price objective, suggesting potential 25% decline.
- The bearish stance contrasts with 75% of Wall Street experts maintaining Buy ratings, with consensus target at $220.20.
- The aerospace company delivered $7.81 billion in quarterly sales, representing 91.9% year-over-year growth and surpassing forecasts.
- Following a second lockup period ending, 319 million shares entered circulation, driving the stock beneath its $135 initial offering price.
- CEO Elon Musk announced a multi-month postponement of the Starship upper-stage recovery test, creating investor uncertainty.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) were changing hands near $131.82 on Friday, declining 1.6% during regular trading hours, after experiencing a brief 1.5% uptick in early morning activity triggered by DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner’s fresh Sell recommendation.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Leistner established a $100 price objective, signaling approximately 25% downside risk from SpaceX’s current trading level. This assessment ranks among the most pessimistic views on Wall Street, where three-quarters of equity analysts maintain Buy recommendations on SPCX. The consensus price projection among covering analysts stands around $220.20.
The equity has experienced challenging market conditions this week. Entering Friday’s session, SPCX had declined 4.3% across the five-day period, positioning it marginally beneath its $135 initial public offering price. The 52-week trading band extends from $104.83 to $225.64.
DZ Bank opted not to distribute the complete research analysis publicly, referencing U.S. regulatory compliance requirements. However, the fundamental bearish thesis revolves around capital requirements. SpaceX faces projected aggregate capital expenditures approaching $800 billion through decade’s end, with substantial allocation directed toward artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The organization presently operates approximately 1.4 gigawatts of computing power distributed across two facilities and aims to achieve 10 gigawatts by late 2027. Extended-term objectives involve scaling to hundreds of gigawatts. Executing this expansion will necessitate SpaceX securing considerable debt financing and equity capital.
This capital deployment strategy carries substantial upside potential. A single gigawatt of AI computing capacity can generate annual lease revenue approaching $50 billion. Market optimists highlight this revenue generation capability as validation for the company’s current market valuation.
Strong Revenue Performance Supports Optimistic Outlook
SpaceX disclosed quarterly revenues totaling $7.81 billion in its latest financial disclosure, reflecting 91.9% year-over-year expansion. The organization recorded a per-share loss of $0.09, outperforming analyst projections calling for a $0.26 deficit. Fiscal year 2026 revenue estimates hover around $44 billion, with 2027 forecasts exceeding $100 billion.
Additional analysts maintain constructive positions. Argus recently elevated SPCX from Hold to Buy, establishing a $160 price objective. William Blair confirmed its Buy recommendation, emphasizing SpaceX’s competitive edge in rocket reusability and artificial intelligence revenue prospects. Stifel Nicolaus maintains a $190 target. Piper Sandler carries a Neutral assessment with a $140 objective following a downward revision.
Share Lockup Release and Launch Timeline Shift Create Headwinds
Thursday’s 4.1% price decline followed the release of 319 million shares previously held by company insiders and initial backers into open market trading. Additional lockup period expirations are calendared through 2027, potentially creating ongoing supply pressure on the stock.
Musk additionally verified that SpaceX will postpone its attempt to capture the descending Starship upper stage using the launch infrastructure for multiple additional months. Market participants had anticipated a capture trial in August. Achieving complete Starship reusability represents a critical factor in minimizing orbital access costs, which forms the foundation of the company’s economic model over time.
SpaceX achieved its 100th orbital mission of 2026 this week and expanded the Starlink satellite network beyond 11,000 operational units.
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