Key Highlights
- Major AI compute agreements with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI contribute approximately $28 billion in annual revenue
- SPCX shares have declined 32% from the $225 peak, currently hovering around $153
- The aerospace company generated $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025 while recording a $4.94 billion net loss
- CEO Elon Musk expressed confidence that SpaceX will significantly surpass Wall Street’s revenue forecasts
- Trading at over 100x trailing revenue, Morningstar estimates fair value near $780 billion — approximately 50% of present market capitalization
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are currently changing hands near $153, representing a substantial 32% decline from the post-listing high of $225 and sitting just 14% above the initial $135 offering price from its June 12 market debut.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The aerospace giant executed the most substantial initial public offering on record, securing $85.7 billion in capital. While shares experienced a strong opening session rally, they’ve subsequently retreated alongside a wider technology sector downturn.
SpaceX achieved 33% revenue expansion in 2025, reaching $18.7 billion. The Starlink division dominated performance with $11.4 billion in sales — representing approximately 61% of consolidated revenue — climbing 48% compared to the prior year. By March 2026, Starlink had surpassed 10 million active subscribers.
Despite impressive top-line momentum, SpaceX registered a $4.94 billion net loss for 2025. Significant capital allocation toward Starship engineering efforts and investments in its xAI division are primary profitability headwinds. The artificial intelligence segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue while remaining unprofitable.
Strategic Repositioning Toward AI Infrastructure Services
The most significant recent strategic shift involves SpaceX’s approach to monetizing its artificial intelligence computing infrastructure.
Instead of deploying GPU resources exclusively for proprietary AI product development, SpaceX is leasing computational capacity to external research organizations. Anthropic has committed to $1.25 billion monthly for exclusive access to the complete Colossus 1 facility. Alphabet’s agreement totals $920 million per month. Reflection AI is contributing $150 million monthly for supplementary capacity.
Combined, these three partnerships generate nearly $28 billion in annualized recurring revenue.
Executives disclosed in regulatory filings that available infrastructure can satisfy all three contractual obligations while maintaining support for internal AI development. The documentation also acknowledged that Grok, the company’s proprietary language model, is projected to serve a specialized market segment.
This strategic disclosure is particularly revealing. SpaceX is fundamentally transitioning into a neocloud infrastructure provider — commercializing commodity computing resources to AI laboratories rather than directly competing in the AI application layer.
Valuation Analysis Against Industry Peers
Comparable neocloud infrastructure companies command substantially lower valuation multiples. CoreWeave maintains a contracted backlog approaching $100 billion while trading at approximately 4.2 times revenue. Oracle reports $638 billion in remaining performance obligations and commands roughly 5 times sales.
SpaceX, conversely, trades at more than 100 times trailing twelve-month revenue with its $2 trillion market capitalization.
Morningstar’s fundamental analysis suggests a fair valuation around $780 billion — roughly 50% of current market pricing. The optimistic scenario demands near-perfect execution: sustained Starlink subscriber acceleration, on-schedule Starship milestones, and xAI pathway to profitability.
This past Sunday, Elon Musk shared on X that falling short of dramatically exceeding Wall Street revenue targets would be “disappointing.” Earlier this month, he suggested SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 — more than tripling Morgan Stanley’s $330 billion projection. Goldman Sachs forecasts $470 billion by 2030, while New Street Research anticipates approximately $195 billion.
SpaceX maintains $100.8 billion in cash reserves as of mid-June and has disclosed plans for a senior unsecured bond issuance. The company’s inaugural quarterly earnings report as a publicly-traded entity is scheduled for August 17, covering second-quarter performance.
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