Key Takeaways
- Thursday saw the release of up to 911.5 million SpaceX shares, representing over 140% of the initial post-IPO trading float
- Despite exceeding Q1 revenue forecasts with $7.8B versus expected $6.8B, SpaceX shares plunged 12% on Wednesday
- Trading below the $135 IPO price, the stock has declined more than 50% from its $225.64 high reached on June 16
- An additional 455.8 million shares remain locked due to the stock trading beneath its IPO price threshold
- Over 4 billion shares will become tradable before 2026 ends; CEO Elon Musk’s holdings remain locked until June 2027
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) were changing hands at approximately $112.22 during Thursday’s premarket session, reflecting a 3.7% gain, as the company’s inaugural major lockup period reached its conclusion. Wednesday’s closing price of $108.27 marked a daily decline exceeding 10%.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
This lockup expiration releases as many as 911.5 million shares previously held by company insiders and early-stage investors. This substantial block exceeds 140% of the shares that were initially available for public trading following the company’s market debut.
Heading into Thursday’s session, the stock had experienced a dramatic pullback of more than 50% from its peak of $225.64 achieved on June 16. Significantly, shares are now trading beneath the $135 IPO price point.
The stock’s position below the IPO price has important implications. Under the lockup agreement terms, an additional tranche consisting of up to 455.8 million shares continues to remain restricted from trading.
Thursday marks the first significant liquidity event for employees and initial investors since December 2025. Evan Mills, a financial advisor who counsels current and former SpaceX team members, explained it directly: “This is the first real opportunity to turn paper wealth into real, hard cash that they can actually spend.”
Rather than implementing a traditional single-date 180-day lockup cliff, SpaceX chose to distribute the restrictions across nine separate phases. This approach aimed to prevent a concentrated wave of selling from flooding the market all at once.
Quarterly Financial Performance
This lockup expiration arrives on the heels of SpaceX releasing its inaugural public quarterly results. The company generated $7.8 billion in revenue for the period, surpassing Wall Street’s $6.8 billion consensus estimate.
The company’s artificial intelligence segment delivered another positive surprise. It recorded $1.1 billion in Ebitda, substantially better than analysts’ projections of a modest loss.
Yet despite these strong financial results, shares fell 12% during Wednesday’s trading session. While this negative price action following positive earnings might appear counterintuitive, market dynamics provide clarity.
SpaceX had experienced a substantial rally of nearly 16% across Monday and Tuesday sessions before the earnings announcement. Much of that upward movement was likely driven by short sellers closing out positions in anticipation of the report, rather than genuine buying interest from new investors.
Short selling activity remains elevated. According to Bloomberg’s reporting of S3 Partners data, approximately 35% of shares available for trading are currently held in short positions. The substantial overhang from the IPO lockup structure represents a primary factor driving bearish bets.
The Road Ahead for Share Releases
Thursday’s unlock represents just the beginning of an extended release schedule. An additional 319 million shares are scheduled to become tradable on August 12, which marks the 70th day following the amended prospectus filing date. Twenty days beyond that, another 319 million shares will unlock.
Before the end of 2026, more than 4 billion shares will have become eligible for trading on the open market. The complete 180-day lockup period extends into early December, encompassing up to 5.33 billion shares altogether.
CEO Elon Musk’s position consists of 6.4 billion shares, including stock options. His shares face an extended restriction period lasting until June 2027.
In a research communication, J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth observed that market participants have been adjusting their positions in advance of Thursday’s unlock event, potentially reducing the immediate selling pressure once those shares gain trading eligibility.
The latest S3 Partners figures confirm that 35% of the tradable float remains sold short as of the current week.
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