Key Highlights
- SPCX plummeted to an unprecedented low of $109.53 on Monday, representing a roughly 50% decline from its peak of $225.64
- Shares have tumbled nearly 30% below the $150 IPO debut price from last month
- First quarterly earnings report scheduled for August 4, with significant lock-up period ending August 6 that could release up to 20% of restricted shares
- Flight 13 of Starship completed successfully, placing 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, despite Super Heavy booster experiencing landing complications
- The company has ceased accepting new Falcon 9 contracts past 2028, placing Starship’s performance front and center for future operations
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) continued their downward trajectory Tuesday, falling an additional 4% in early trading following Monday’s session that established a fresh all-time low of $109.53. The stock settled Monday’s trading at $113.50, representing a 1.4% daily loss.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Shares have now plunged nearly 30% below the $150 initial public offering price established merely a month ago. Measured against the record high of $225.64, the decline approaches 50%. The destruction in shareholder value ā exceeding $1.2 trillion ā rivals the complete market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA).
Monday’s session represented the 13th negative day within the past 16 trading sessions for SPCX.
The persistent sell-off continues even after a triumphant Starship test mission last Friday. During its 13th orbital test, the vehicle successfully deployed its complete payload of 20 advanced Starlink V3 satellites, executed an in-orbit engine restart, and achieved what SpaceX characterized as its gentlest water landing yet.
“I’m a little over the moon right now,” SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said during the company’s livestream. “Lucky number 13.”
However, the mission encountered some challenges. The Super Heavy booster couldn’t ignite all 13 engines during its descent maneuver and impacted the Gulf of Mexico with greater force than anticipated. Recovery operations weren’t planned for either vehicle on this particular mission.
CEO Elon Musk announced that SpaceX plans to capture the Starship upper stage utilizing the “Mechazilla” tower catching mechanism on the subsequent flight, pending favorable results from mission data analysis.
Upcoming Earnings and Lock-Up Expiration Creating Investor Concerns
Market participants are growing increasingly nervous ahead of SpaceX’s inaugural quarterly financial disclosure, set for August 4. Just 48 hours after that, on August 6, approximately 911.5 million restricted stock units ā representing roughly 20% of locked shares ā will become eligible for market sale.
“I don’t think the lock-up on SpaceX will be as bad as everyone fears,” said Charles Moon, a tech and momentum specialist at Prosper Trading Academy. “But it’s not going to help the cause either.”
Monday’s options market activity painted a complex narrative. Market participants acquired 106,000 call contracts compared to 77,000 put contracts by volume, yet the majority of the $442 million in total premium focused on downside protection. The highest-volume contract was a 330-strike call expiring Friday ā valued at just 10 cents with approximately a one-third of 1% probability of profitability.
Company Stakes Future on Starship Platform
SpaceX has executed a strategic shift away from its Falcon 9 platform. The company has discontinued accepting dedicated Falcon 9 mission contracts beyond 2028, suspended Falcon 9 rideshare program bookings, and phased out manufacturing of certain non-reusable components for both Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy vehicles.
This strategic realignment creates significant pressure for Starship to demonstrate consistent reliability and operational scalability. Company projections call for dozens of Starship missions next year, escalating to hundreds by 2028, with thousands of flights anticipated in subsequent years.
“As a trader, Wall Street is now punishing the AI stocks for capex,” Moon said.
Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, recognized the current market challenges while maintaining an optimistic long-term outlook. “SpaceX doesn’t really have a natural competitor base. They have a good product with an intergalactic-sized moat, and more customers every day.”
As of 9:58 AM EDT Tuesday, shares were changing hands around $107.
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