Key Takeaways
- Over the last three weeks, retail traders have offloaded approximately $570 million worth of SpaceX shares, including nearly $250 million in the most recent week.
- The company’s CFO Bret Johnsen confirmed confidence in reaching $100 billion in annual revenue, supported by a fresh AI computing contract valued at $1.11 billion monthly.
- On September 21, SpaceX’s Nasdaq-100 representation will expand, potentially forcing index funds to purchase around $15.5 billion in shares, according to JPMorgan estimates.
- Second quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, marking a 92% year-over-year increase, with the AI division contributing $2.6 billion.
- Analyst consensus points to a Moderate Buy recommendation with an average target price of $219, suggesting approximately 51% potential gains.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares were changing hands at $153.37 during early Friday session, sliding 0.8% while broader indexes remained largely unchanged. The stock has climbed roughly 15% above its $135 debut price, yet individual investors have been steadily reducing positions.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
According to JPMorgan’s Arun Jain, who monitors retail trading patterns, approximately $570 million in retail-driven selling has occurred across the past three weeks. The most recent week witnessed nearly $250 million in outflows, representing the largest single-week retail exit Jain has documented for this security.
This is not about poor performance. The stock has actually appreciated by roughly $20 since the selloff started. The more plausible interpretation points to investors booking gains following substantial early demand after the IPO, when retail participants gained their first opportunity to invest in Musk’s aerospace venture.
Despite the recent selling pressure, cumulative retail inflows into SpaceX remain around $3.4 billion. That represents significant capital. For perspective, retail ownership comprises roughly 40% of Tesla’s available float, approximately double the typical rate for major technology firms, and this dedicated investor base has provided crucial support for Tesla’s elevated 174x forward earnings multiple.
SpaceX currently commands approximately 138 times forward earnings. While lower than Tesla’s valuation, it remains a premium multiple indicating elevated market expectations.
AI Computing Deal Reinforces $100 Billion Revenue Ambition
During a Goldman Sachs investor conference, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen expressed increased confidence regarding the company’s $100 billion annual revenue objective. The most recent development is an AI computing agreement valued at $1.11 billion monthly beginning in December, translating to roughly $13 billion annually, with an undisclosed partner.
This contract supplements existing AI compute arrangements with Google and Anthropic, which collectively generate over $2 billion monthly. An additional $6.7 billion cloud infrastructure agreement is scheduled to commence in October. Johnsen indicated the AI infrastructure investment achieves payback in under twelve months based on secured commitments.
The company posted $7.8 billion in second quarter revenue, representing 92% year-over-year growth. The connectivity division led performance with $4.3 billion. Achieving the $100 billion annualized target by year-end requires monthly revenue to more than triple from the present level of approximately $2.6 billion.
Nasdaq-100 Adjustment May Drive Stock Higher
A significant near-term catalyst arrives September 21. SpaceX’s allocation within the Nasdaq-100 is projected to grow from approximately 1.25% to roughly 2.25%, following the release of over a billion shares from lock-up restrictions, increasing the free float to nearly 30%. JPMorgan projects this change will necessitate approximately $15.5 billion in purchases by passive index funds.
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas initiated a Buy recommendation on September 15 with a $300 price objective, implying 100% appreciation potential. Bernstein’s Douglas Harned maintains a Buy with a $248 target. MoffettNathanson retained its Hold stance while lifting its target from $131 to $142.
Among 36 Wall Street research analysts, the prevailing view is Moderate Buy with an average price objective of $219. The highest target reaches $800.
SpaceX has also secured a NASA launch services agreement for the StarBurst gamma ray detector, scheduled for deployment no earlier than 2028.
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