Key Takeaways
- SPCX shares have climbed approximately 22% following last Thursday’s initial lockup expiration
- Another batch of SpaceX stock becomes available for trading on August 20
- Shares remain more than 6% below the June IPO level and 30% off the peak of $201.80
- Mizuho maintains its Outperform stance with a $200 target, suggesting 42% potential gains
- Emerging competitor Stoke Space Technologies seeks $1 billion in funding to develop reusable launch technology
Shares of SpaceX ticked higher by 0.9% to reach $142.55 during Friday’s premarket session, extending a rally that has delivered approximately 22% gains over the past week since the initial lockup period concluded on August 7.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Even with this recent momentum, SPCX remains more than 6% underwater relative to its June 12 trading debut and trades 30% beneath its peak of $201.80 reached on June 16.
The upward move unfolds as market participants prepare for another critical event. Additional SpaceX shares become tradable on August 20, marking the second unlock since the company’s public market entrance just two months prior.
Market observers are paying close attention. Many anticipated selling pressure following the initial lockup expiration. Those expectations proved unfounded. Whether similar dynamics play out next week remains the critical unknown.
According to a Thursday regulatory disclosure, Elon Musk maintained a 48.4% ownership position in SpaceX as of June 30. Using Thursday’s closing figures, that holding carries a valuation approaching $906.9 billion.
Mizuho Maintains Bullish Stance With $200 Price Objective
Contributing to Friday’s optimistic tone, Mizuho’s Brett Linzey reaffirmed his Outperform recommendation while maintaining a $200 price objective on SPCX. This target represents approximately 42% appreciation from present levels.
Linzey drew attention to SpaceX’s artificial intelligence system, Grok 4.6, describing it as delivering “frontier-level performance.” He noted the platform now matches recent releases from OpenAI and Anthropic in areas including coding capabilities, multi-step reasoning, and advanced mathematics.
According to Linzey, competitive pricing combined with availability through Cursor, an AI-powered development platform, positions Grok to attract additional corporate clients and capture share from competing AI solutions.
Mizuho also pointed to constrained conditions within the AI computing sector. Collaborating with senior software analyst Gregg Moskowitz, Linzey identified ongoing scarcity in high-performance computing resources, with pricing pressure affecting both current-generation and legacy systems.
This dynamic may favor SpaceX. The organization has developed substantial proprietary computing infrastructure supporting its AI operations, minimizing reliance on third-party providers. As external capacity becomes increasingly difficult to obtain, this internal capability could provide SpaceXAI with expansion opportunities.
Wall Street consensus leans positive. TipRanks data shows SPCX earning a Moderate Buy rating, supported by 24 Buy recommendations, five Hold ratings, and two Sell calls. The consensus price target of $232.35 indicates 64% upside potential from current trading levels.
Stoke Space Pursues $1 Billion to Challenge SpaceX Dominance
On the competitive landscape, emerging player Stoke Space Technologies is pursuing $1 billion in capital to speed development of a completely reusable launch system, Bloomberg reported, citing sources with knowledge of the fundraising.
SpaceX presently commands over 90% of the worldwide commercial satellite launch sector. Breaking into this market presents formidable challenges.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn vehicle experienced propulsion failure during its third mission in April, leaving an AST SpaceMobile satellite in an incorrect orbit. A subsequent static fire test explosion in May destroyed the rocket and caused significant damage to a Cape Canaveral launch facility.
Linzey maintains a 74% accuracy rating on TipRanks, placing 244th among 12,468 tracked analysts, with average gains of 16.20% per recommendation.
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