Key Takeaways
- Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating on SpaceX with a $250 price objective, suggesting roughly 100% potential upside from current levels near $127
- SPCX climbed more than 6% during Tuesday’s trading session, ending a seven-day decline
- Shares remain over 20% below their initial closing price following the June 12 public debut
- Anthropic has secured an agreement to utilize full computing capacity at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 facility, encompassing 300MW of power and over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs
- The company will announce quarterly results for the first time as a publicly traded entity on August 4, coinciding with the initial phase of IPO lock-up release
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) rallied over 6% during Tuesday’s session, climbing back toward $127 following Macquarie’s recommendation that investors view the recent weakness as an attractive entry point. The equity has experienced consistent pressure since its landmark initial public offering on June 12 and continues trading beneath its $135 IPO pricing.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Macquarie maintained its Outperform designation and established a $250 valuation objective ā representing approximately double the current trading level. The research team, headed by Paul Golding, employed a combination of Sum-of-the-Parts methodology and Discounted Cash Flow modeling, incorporating both traditional launch business fundamentals and developing AI computing revenue streams.
The primary investment thesis: SpaceX has evolved beyond its origins as purely a launch services provider.
Macquarie characterizes the company as a computing infrastructure platform ā one commanding satellite communications bandwidth, reusable launch systems, and proprietary semiconductor and data center technology. The firm contends that Starlink’s orbital network and plans for deploying up to one million satellites powered by continuous solar energy could circumvent the electricity and thermal management challenges currently limiting terrestrial data center expansion.
Strategic Partnerships Validate Investment Case
The artificial intelligence infrastructure narrative is already producing tangible commercial agreements. Anthropic has committed to utilizing all available computing resources at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 installation, securing approximately 300 megawatts of capacity and access to more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Alphabet has similarly established multi-billion-dollar AI computing partnerships with SpaceX, establishing the company as a large-scale infrastructure provider beyond its traditional launch services business.
Macquarie views these partnerships as initial validation of the business model transformation ā and maintains they support the recommendation to “buy any dip.”
However, skepticism remains widespread. Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson contended last week that the valuation remains stretched at 92 times trailing revenues, suggesting the stock is overvalued by a factor of nearly 10 based on his view that a 10x revenue multiple would be generous.
Short sellers have aligned with bearish perspectives. Short interest has expanded to approximately one-third of SpaceX’s publicly available float, and with limited shares accessible prior to lock-up expiration, the heightened short interest has contributed to increased price volatility. Elon Musk responded on Monday via X, stating that entities maintaining substantial short positions in SpaceX over extended periods face a “very low” probability of favorable outcomes.
First Public Earnings Report Coincides with Lock-Up Release
The next significant milestone arrives on August 4, when SpaceX will disclose quarterly financial results for the first time since becoming a public company. This date simultaneously initiates the first stage of a phased IPO lock-up expiration schedule.
After the earnings announcement, company insiders gain permission to divest up to 20% of their locked-up positions ā potentially as many as 911.5 million shares. An additional 10% becomes available for sale if shares trade at least 30% above the IPO price during five of the ten trading sessions preceding the earnings date.
SpaceX’s 13th Starship test mission introduced additional uncertainty last week after the launch was terminated less than one second before liftoff following multiple engine ignition malfunctions. Macquarie indicated the near-term operational setback does not alter the fundamental long-term investment rationale.
SPCX currently changes hands near $127, remaining more than 20% beneath its initial closing price.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
