Key Takeaways
- Elon Musk projects SpaceX will achieve $3.5 trillion in yearly revenue by 2033, seven years before Morgan Stanley’s 2040 projection.
- Second quarter revenue at SpaceX surged 92% year-over-year to $7.81 billion, driven primarily by connectivity services at $4.29 billion.
- Reaching the $3.5 trillion target from current ~$31 billion annual run rate demands approximately 96% yearly compound growth through 2033.
- The company unveiled plans for a $100 billion Louisiana spaceport facility, with groundbreaking scheduled for 2027 and initial Starship operations by 2029.
- SPCX shares finished trading at $141.50, gaining roughly 0.5%, exceeding Morgan Stanley’s $137 price objective.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) finished the trading session at $141.50, climbing approximately 0.5%, following Elon Musk’s ambitious revenue projection that captured Wall Street’s attention.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
In a post on X, Musk stated that SpaceX could achieve approximately $3.5 trillion in yearly revenue by 2033. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s freshly updated analysis places that same revenue threshold closer to 2040. The difference represents a seven-year acceleration.
Analyst Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley maintained his Overweight recommendation on SpaceX, describing the company as “attractively valued.” The firm’s existing price objective stands at $137 per share, slightly under current trading levels.
The calculations supporting Musk’s projection are aggressive. SpaceX reported second quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, representing 92% growth compared to the prior year. This translates to an annualized revenue rate near $31 billion. Achieving $3.5 trillion by 2033 necessitates approximately 112-fold revenue expansion, translating to roughly 96% compounded annual growth sustained over seven consecutive years.
The connectivity segment dominated Q2 revenue generation with $4.29 billion, while AI contributed $2.56 billion, and space operations brought in $962 million.
Investment in infrastructure remains substantial. SpaceX allocated $18.37 billion toward capital expenditures during Q2 exclusively. This figure illustrates the significant cash deployment required to construct the framework underlying Musk’s ambitious projections.
New Louisiana Facility Expands Launch Infrastructure
Earlier this week, SpaceX revealed plans for Starbase Louisiana, a massive $100 billion spaceport facility in South Louisiana. Ground will break in 2027, with the inaugural Starship launch planned for 2029.
Morgan Stanley anticipates the facility will enable polar and sun-synchronous orbital missions, expanding SpaceX’s launch ecosystem. The firm’s financial model projects SpaceX will ultimately maintain 15 operational launch pads, adding three more by late 2027. Operating at two launches daily per pad, this infrastructure could facilitate approximately 5,800 Starship missions each year by 2040.
Artificial Intelligence and Space-Based Computing
SpaceX continues aggressive expansion into AI-related infrastructure. The company intends to expand computing capacity from over 2 GW by late 2026 to approximately 10 GW throughout 2027.
Morgan Stanley calculates that each incremental 1 GW of orbital computing capability contributes roughly $27 per share to SpaceX’s enterprise value. This metric becomes increasingly important as the company expands this operational segment.
Musk previously indicated that SpaceX might achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, potentially arriving as early as 2029 under accelerated growth conditions.
Morgan Stanley’s earlier valuation framework estimated SpaceX at approximately $330 billion by 2030, expanding to $3.4 trillion by 2040.
SPCX stock settled at $141.50, advancing roughly 0.5% over the 24-hour period, trading above Morgan Stanley’s current $137 per share valuation.
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