Key Takeaways
- TeraWulf shares declined 2.3% on Wednesday to $18.96, capping off a four-day slide totaling nearly 19% since July 9
- Governor Kathy Hochul implemented a 12-month freeze on data center construction exceeding 50 megawatts in New York
- Both of TeraWulf’s major facilities—Lake Mariner and Cayuga—are located in New York, creating perceived exposure
- Rosenblatt and Cantor Fitzgerald view the decline as a buy opportunity, setting price targets at $30 and $37
- Wall Street analysts argue the policy doesn’t impact TeraWulf’s current New York operations
TeraWulf shares have experienced a challenging stretch. The cryptocurrency mining company that’s pivoting toward data center operations fell 2.3% to close at $18.96 on Wednesday, marking the fourth straight losing session.
Since July 9, the stock has tumbled almost 19%, dipping beneath its 50-day moving average currently positioned around $24.30. This week’s decline has wiped out approximately $2.06 billion in shareholder value.
The sharp downturn followed Governor Kathy Hochul’s executive directive issued Tuesday, establishing a one-year construction ban on data centers exceeding 50 megawatts throughout New York state.
TeraWulf faces heightened exposure compared to competitors. Both its Lake Mariner facility and the Cayuga project currently under development operate within New York’s borders, theoretically placing the firm directly under the new regulation’s scope.
However, equity research analysts aren’t convinced the concerns are justified. On Wednesday, Rosenblatt’s Chris Brendler maintained his Buy recommendation alongside a $30 price objective, suggesting approximately 58% potential appreciation from present levels.
“Although WULF should be largely exempt and now has the majority of its power footprint outside of NY, the stock still sold off,” Brendler wrote. “We view this development as more headline risk than structural as the enforcement mechanism simply doesn’t reach the company’s existing NY platform.”
Cantor Fitzgerald shared this assessment, characterizing the downturn as an attractive entry point. The investment bank retained its Overweight stance and $37 valuation target.
Wall Street Price Objectives Remain Elevated
Rosenblatt’s $30 projection derives from applying a 26x multiple to the firm’s 2028 Adjusted EBITDA forecast. Compass Point takes an even more aggressive stance with a $40 objective. Needham established a $33 target, while Bernstein SocGen carries an Outperform recommendation with a $36 valuation.
This represents substantial bullish sentiment from research firms, particularly given the stock’s current position near $19.
The selloff wasn’t isolated to TeraWulf. CoreWeave declined 4% while Nebius dropped 7.8% on Tuesday. Riot Platforms, Cipher Digital, and Hut 8 similarly experienced downward pressure, posting losses across Tuesday and Wednesday trading.
The Anthropic Partnership Remains Intact
Despite the regulatory headlines, TeraWulf’s core investment thesis remains unchanged. The company recently executed a 20-year agreement with Anthropic at its Hawesville, Kentucky facility—delivering 401 megawatts of IT infrastructure capacity valued at $19 billion.
This transformative contract exists entirely outside New York jurisdiction, which explains why sell-side analysts maintain their bullish outlook.
Additionally, TeraWulf divested its 50.1% ownership position in Abernathy for approximately $530 million, securing a $450 million capital infusion representing 168 megawatts of capacity.
Shares have declined 23% during July but remain up 65% year-to-date and have exploded 260% over the trailing twelve months. With a beta coefficient of 4.26, extreme price swings are characteristic—and for certain analysts, that volatility creates opportunity.
Rosenblatt confirmed its Buy recommendation on Wednesday, July 15, maintaining the $30 price target without adjustment.
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