Key Highlights
- Tesla shares decreased approximately 1% during premarket hours to $403.56 on Monday
- The electric vehicle manufacturer shut down Model S and Model X assembly lines at Fremont to accommodate Optimus humanoid robot production
- Second quarter deliveries reached 480,100 vehicles, surpassing analyst consensus of 406,000 units
- Jefferies increased its price target to $400 from $375, keeping a Hold rating
- Market participants are awaiting the July 22 earnings announcement for Optimus production details
Tesla shares experienced a decline of approximately 1% to $403.56 during Monday’s premarket session, extending a challenging year that has witnessed the stock drop around 9% in 2026, though it remains roughly 30% above levels from twelve months prior.
The decline occurs as market participants anticipate more tangible developments regarding Tesla’s artificial intelligence initiatives, encompassing its humanoid robot Optimus and the autonomous taxi deployment.
Last Friday, Tesla released footage demonstrating the complete dismantling of its Model S and Model X assembly operations at the Fremont, California manufacturing facility. The removal process was finished in less than seven weeks. The vacated production area will now accommodate Optimus robot manufacturing.
Tesla initially revealed intentions to cease Model S and X manufacturing in January, with Chief Executive Elon Musk characterizing the robotics venture as a multi-trillion-dollar market opportunity. This decision underscores the company’s substantial commitment to Optimus as its forthcoming major revenue source.
Despite the intensive preparations, Tesla has yet to commence commercial sales of Optimus. Competing humanoid robotics manufacturers, including China’s Unitree, are consistently publishing development updates, intensifying expectations for Tesla to demonstrate advancement.
Second Quarter Vehicle Deliveries Surpass Projections
Tesla reported deliveries of 480,100 vehicles during Q2 2026, significantly exceeding the Bloomberg consensus figure of approximately 380,700 units and JPMorgan’s projection of 420,000. This figure represents 25% growth compared to the previous year.
Model 3 and Model Y vehicles comprised 467,800 of total deliveries. The “Others” segment ā encompassing Cybertruck and additional models ā recorded 12,364 deliveries.
Following the delivery results, Jefferies elevated its TSLA price target to $400 from $375, while maintaining its Hold rating. The firm increased its Q2 EBIT projection to $1.45 billion, representing a 5.1% margin, and raised future-year EBIT estimates by approximately 6%.
Jefferies also adjusted its automotive revenue forecast for the quarter upward to $21 billion, incorporating $250 million in zero-emission vehicle credits and $500 million from leasing operations. Total group revenue is projected at $28.7 billion.
For calendar year 2026, Jefferies raised its EBIT projection by 4% to $6.2 billion. The firm retained its free cash flow outflow forecast at roughly $7.5 billion, accounting for capital expenditures of approximately $23 billion.
Upcoming Catalyst: July 22 Quarterly Results
JPMorgan retained a Neutral rating with a $475 price target after reviewing the delivery figures. RBC Capital advanced further, increasing its target to $500, incorporating a hypothetical SpaceX acquisition scenario.
Morgan Stanley preserved its Equalweight rating with a $415 target, highlighting Tesla’s recent robotaxi debut in Miami as a noteworthy development.
Tesla’s autonomous taxi service, initially introduced in Austin during June 2025, continues operating in a restricted number of metropolitan areas and remains substantially behind Alphabet’s Waymo in operational scope.
Attention now shifts to Tesla’s Q2 financial results on July 22, where market participants anticipate updates regarding Optimus manufacturing schedules and the newest version of the humanoid robot.
Seven financial analysts have already adjusted earnings projections upward in advance of the announcement, according to InvestingPro data.
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