Key Takeaways
- Q2 delivery estimates for Tesla range between 397,000 and 408,600 units, representing approximately 3% annual growth
- June saw dramatic European registration increases, including France’s doubling and Sweden’s 56% rise
- American market faces challenges with Cox Automotive projecting a 20% sales drop following federal EV tax credit elimination
- Deutsche Bank forecasts a 21% YoY North American decline offset by 7% quarterly improvement from Q1
- Shares closed at $420.60 on June 30, gaining more than 8% Monday, yet remain down over 8% year-to-date
Tesla (TSLA) approaches its Q2 delivery announcement, potentially as soon as Wednesday, with analysts keen to determine whether European momentum can compensate for domestic challenges.
Bloomberg’s analyst consensus projects 397,000 total Q2 deliveries. Tesla’s internal sell-side consensus, updated on its investor relations platform June 26, indicates 406,024 vehicles, with a median projection reaching 408,600.
This represents approximately 3% expansion compared to last year’s Q2 figure of 384,000 deliveries. The previous year’s comparisons were negatively impacted by the Model Y refresh transition and controversy surrounding CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement.
Shares settled at $420.60 on June 30, following Monday’s surge exceeding 8% — the largest single-session advance in twelve months. Nevertheless, the stock trades roughly flat for the quarter and remains more than 8% lower in 2026.
European Market Powers Forward
The most encouraging element in Tesla’s delivery outlook centers on Europe. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association indicates Tesla recorded 28,610 vehicle registrations throughout Europe during May, climbing nearly 108% annually. Through May’s conclusion, year-to-date registrations reached 118,068, marking a 57% increase.
Within EU boundaries specifically, May registrations more than doubled with 152% growth.
June figures continue emerging. French registrations exceeded double their year-ago level, Danish registrations advanced 39%, and Swedish numbers climbed 56%, based on Wednesday’s released data.
Norway represented an outlier — registrations declined 43% year-over-year. British and German statistics await release later this week.
Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu identified Europe as “the standout driver,” forecasting nearly 40% annual regional growth. Chinese market contributions should add roughly 3% growth, while North American volumes face a projected 21% year-over-year decline, partially offset by 7% sequential improvement from Q1.
Battery-electric vehicles currently comprise 20% of the EU market through May, expanding from 15.3% twelve months prior, as traditional petrol and diesel vehicle sales diminish.
American Market Confronts Obstacles
The domestic picture presents greater difficulties. Federal EV tax credit expiration eliminated a crucial purchasing incentive that previously influenced many buyers’ decisions. Cox Automotive projects Tesla’s American sales declined 20% following this change.
Musk’s political engagement remains controversial across Europe, though it appears less damaging to sales than previously — consumers seemingly prioritize value over political considerations.
Energy Storage Performance Also Monitored
Beyond automotive deliveries, Tesla’s energy and battery storage division merits attention. The company’s internal consensus projects 13.8 GWh Q2 deployment, representing over 50% expansion versus Q1’s 8.8 GWh.
Britain and Germany, representing Europe’s dominant automotive markets, will publish June registration data later this week.
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